Bull Rankings model

Ternium SA (TX) stock analysis

Metals & Mining. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
TX
Ternium SA · Metals & Mining
33.2Score
$58.18Oct 9 close$11.1B
1Y Target$66.91Model estimate · no analyst coverage
5Y Target$97.96Compound horizon
10Y Target$145.31Long-dated conviction
FCF*—TTM
—
FCF n/a — no recent cash-flow statement on record for this company
Rev-1.4%TTM YoY
D+
Revenue -1.4% — shrinking; needs a catalyst to reverse · Latest four quarters of revenue vs the four before them.
D/E0.22
A-
D/E 0.22 — conservative leverage, strong balance sheet
P/E15.8x
B+
P/E 15.8 — at or below S&P median, reasonable
PEG*—
—
PEG n/a — not reported for this company

* FCF n/a — no recent cash-flow statement on record for this company

* PEG n/a — not reported for this company

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 33.2
Quality46.9
Growth14.7
Value52.8
Why this score
  • Raising its dividend
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
2% off the 12-month high

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Metals & Mining · market cap $11.1b. Trading near 52-week high of $59.32 — momentum setup, limited technical margin of safety.
Moat
Mining moat is reserve quality + extraction cost per unit — top-quartile cost producers generate cash through the commodity cycle while marginal producers burn it.
Risk
Trading within 2% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Net margin 4.4% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first. ROE 6% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.
Horizon
1-3 yr $66.91 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $97.96 at ~11% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $145.31 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.

TX vs the Top Picks average

PillarTXBook avgDiff
Quality4783-36
Growth1589-74
Value5376-23

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
-26.8 over 80 daily scores
From 60.0 (Jun 22) → 33.2 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

TX at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD33.2/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY46.9GROWTH14.7VALUE52.8
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$58.2LOW $33HIGH $59.3Trading near its 52-week high ($33–$59.3).
WHERE THIS SCORE SITS0255075100TX 33.2Ranks above 24% of 1,709 companies on the quality-growth score.

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+0.0%
90-day change+20.6%
Forward EPS estimate$7.65

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect TX to earn is materially higher (+20.6%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
34
Position size
$1,978
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$43.63
25% below $58.18
$ at risk if stopped
$494.53
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

Ternium SA (TX): score, valuation & FAQ

Ternium SA (TX) is a Metals & Mining company that scores 33.2 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a weak reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A-) and P/E (B+), while Rev (D+) rate weaker.

Is TX a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores TX 33.2 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a weak reading. That is driven by D/E (A-) and P/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Ternium SA's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does TX score 33.2 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on value at 52.8 out of 100, with growth the weakest pillar at 14.7 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. TX earns its highest marks on D/E (A-) and P/E (B+), and is held back by Rev (D+). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so TX is measured against Metals & Mining peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is TX overvalued or undervalued?

We don't compute a reliable discounted-cash-flow value for TX — typically because it is not yet consistently profitable or free-cash-flow positive — so its valuation rests on growth and price-to-sales rather than on earnings-based intrinsic value. Judge it on the trajectory of the business, not a single multiple.

What are the main risks of investing in TX?

Trading within 2% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Net margin 4.4% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first. ROE 6% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

More Basic Materials stocks by score

All Basic Materials rankings →

Analyze another ticker →