Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

TRGP analysis

Targa Resources Corp.Oil & Gas Midstream. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

TRGP
Targa Resources Corp. · Oil & Gas Midstream
FCF$741mC+
Rev-2.0%D+
D/E5.16D
P/E28.6xC
PEG1.25B
52.4Score
$299.10$64.1B
1Y Target$305.24Analyst consensus · 21 analysts
5Y Target$446.90Compound horizon
10Y Target$662.94Long-dated conviction
FCF$741mTTM
C+
FCF $741m — respectable but not differentiating
Rev-2.0%TTM YoY
D+
Revenue -2.0% — shrinking; needs a catalyst to reverse
D/E5.16
D
D/E 5.16 — most levered decile in Energy (≈95th pctile)
P/E28.6x
C
P/E 28.6 — expensive vs Energy peers (≈90th pctile)
PEG1.25
B
PEG 1.25 — acceptable premium for growth

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 52.4
Quality77.3
Growth41.1
Value45.2
Why this score
  • Raising its dividend
  • Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
3% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value336% aboveest. fair value ~$69
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~42% a year for the next decade — vs the ~5% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability25% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC27.3% · Areturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Oil & Gas Midstream · market cap $64.1b. Trading near 52-week high of $307.94 — momentum setup, limited technical margin of safety. 21 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $305.24 (implying +2% upside).
Moat
Net margin 14% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 62% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. $64.1b market cap gives the company enough scale to absorb fixed costs that subscale competitors can't, without yet being so large that growth has to come from acquisition.
Risk
D/E 5.16 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Trading within 3% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Jurisdictional + permitting risk — mining and extraction operations concentrate exposure to political stability, royalty regimes, and environmental review timelines that can stall production for years.
Horizon
1-3 yr $305.24 (21-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $446.90 at ~8% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $662.94 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

TRGP vs the Top Picks average

PillarTRGPBook avgDiff
Quality0.770.84-0.07
Growth0.410.84-0.43
Value0.450.78-0.33

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-3.6 over 47 daily scores
From 56.0 (Jun 22) → 52.4 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+1.3%
90-day change-1.8%
Forward EPS estimate$12.08

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect TRGP to earn is drifting lower (-1.8%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
6
Position size
$1,795
3.6% of portfolio
Stop price
$224.33
25% below $299.10
$ at risk if stopped
$448.65
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Targa Resources Corp. (TRGP): score, valuation & FAQ

Targa Resources Corp. (TRGP) is a Oil & Gas Midstream company that scores 52.4 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

The model flags Rev (D+) and D/E (D) as weaker areas. On valuation, TRGP sits about 336% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 42% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is TRGP a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores TRGP 52.4 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. A score is a quantitative screen of Targa Resources Corp.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does TRGP score 52.4 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). TRGP grades middle-of-pack across the strip, and is held back by Rev (D+) and D/E (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is TRGP overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $299.10, TRGP sits about 336% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 42% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 28.6x P/E (graded C). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in TRGP?

D/E 5.16 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Trading within 3% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Jurisdictional + permitting risk — mining and extraction operations concentrate exposure to political stability, royalty regimes, and environmental review timelines that can stall production for years.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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