Oil & Gas Midstream. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.
★
HESM
Hess Midstream LP · Oil & Gas Midstream
63.3Score
$32.26Oct 9 close$6.7B
1Y Target$37.50Analyst consensus · 6 analysts
5Y Target$47.34Compound horizon
10Y Target$60.72Long-dated conviction
FCF$838mTTM · 06/26C+
FCF $838m — respectable but not differentiating · Trailing twelve months to 06/26 (operating cash flow − capex).
Rev+8.4%FY YoYB
Revenue +8.4% — at or above S&P median · Computed from the last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E9.48D
D/E 9.48 — most levered decile in Energy (≈95th pctile)
P/E11.1xB+
P/E 11.1 — below the Energy median (≈40th pctile)
PEG2.20est.C
PEG 2.20 — expensive relative to growth rate · PEG derived: P/E ÷ analysts' expected EPS growth for next year, because this name has no vendor-supplied PEG. When earnings are expected to dip this year, the growth used is the yearly average over this year and next, so a recovery isn't counted as growth.
Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology
Quality-growth score · 63.3
Quality78.4
Growth50.0
Value64.6
Why this score
Buying back stock
Raising its dividend
Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
22% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value68% belowest. fair value ~$102
What the price assumes: free cash flow shrinking about 19% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~8% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards
Why now
Oil & Gas Midstream · market cap $6.7b. Down 22% from 52-week high of $41.44 — deep drawdown territory. 6 sell-side analysts rate this an Underperform with a mean 1-yr target of $37.50 (implying +16% upside).
Moat
Net margin 23% sits well above the S&P median (~11%) — suggests structural pricing advantage or cost discipline competitors can't quickly close. Free cash flow runs well ahead of reported net income, mostly because of depreciation and amortization ($224m) — non-cash charges that hold down reported earnings while cash generation stays strong.
Risk
D/E 9.48 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Dividend payout 105% of earnings on a 9.1% yield — distribution coverage is thin; one earnings stumble could force a dividend cut. Hedge-book exposure — many commodity producers hedge forward production; if the hedge book is concentrated at prices well below spot, the upside the market expects is already locked away.
Horizon
1-3 yr $37.50 (6-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $47.34 at ~8% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $60.72 if the moat survives secular pressure.
HESM vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
HESM
Book avg
Diff
Quality
78
83
-5
Growth
50
89
-39
Value
65
76
-11
Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.
Score history · HESM
Trend
-5.1 over 82 daily scores
From 68.4 (Jun 22) → 63.3 (now)
One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.
HESM at a glance
Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.
Analyst estimate revisions
30-day change
+0.4%
90-day change
+1.9%
Forward EPS estimate
$3.11
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect HESM to earn is drifting higher (+1.9%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →
Position sizing · HESM
$
%
%
Shares to buy
61
Position size
$1,968
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$24.20
25% below $32.26
$ at risk if stopped
$491.96
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.
Hess Midstream LP (HESM): score, valuation & FAQ
Hess Midstream LP (HESM) is an Oil & Gas Midstream company that scores 63.3 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are P/E (B+), while D/E (D) rate weaker. On valuation, HESM sits about 68% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 19% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten.
Is HESM a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores HESM 63.3 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by P/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Hess Midstream LP's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does HESM score 63.3 on Bull Rankings?
The score leans on quality at 78.4 out of 100, with growth the weakest pillar at 50.0 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. HESM earns its highest marks on P/E (B+), and is held back by D/E (D). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so HESM is measured against Oil & Gas Midstream peers, not against the market as a whole.
Is HESM overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $32.26, HESM sits about 68% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 19% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten. It trades at an 11.1x P/E (graded B+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in HESM?
D/E 9.48 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Dividend payout 105% of earnings on a 9.1% yield — distribution coverage is thin; one earnings stumble could force a dividend cut. Hedge-book exposure — many commodity producers hedge forward production; if the hedge book is concentrated at prices well below spot, the upside the market expects is already locked away.