Bull Rankings model

Dorian LPG Ltd. (LPG) stock analysis

Oil & Gas Midstream. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
LPG
Dorian LPG Ltd. · Oil & Gas Midstream
49.2Score
$57.64Oct 9 close$2.5B
1Y Target$54.60Analyst consensus · 5 analysts
5Y Target$79.94Compound horizon
10Y Target$118.59Long-dated conviction
FCF$177mTTM · 06/26
C
FCF $177m — modest; watch for margin expansion · TTM from SEC filings (OCF − CapEx), four quarters to 06/26.
Rev+81.1%TTM YoY
A
Revenue +81.1% — hypergrowth, top decile · Latest four quarters of revenue vs the four before them, from SEC filings.
D/E0.52
B
D/E 0.52 — near the Energy debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/E7.6x
A-
P/E 7.6 — cheaper than most Energy peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG*—
—
PEG n/a — analysts expect next year's earnings to be no higher than last year's

* PEG n/a — analysts expect next year's earnings to be no higher than last year's

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 49.2
Quality85.4
Growth50.0
Value27.8
Why this score
  • Raising its dividend
  • Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
4% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value34% belowest. fair value ~$88
What the price assumes: free cash flow shrinking about 3% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~9% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Quality signals
ROIC15.3% · A-return on invested capital — leads the quality score

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Oil & Gas Midstream · market cap $2.5b. 4% off the 52-week high of $59.97. Revenue growing +81% — in hypergrowth territory. 5 sell-side analysts publish a mean 1-yr target of $54.60 (implying -5% upside).
Moat
Net margin 55% is exceptional — pricing-power territory rare outside premium software, branded staples, and specialty pharma. ROE 26% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which.
Risk
Production-cost sensitivity — top-quartile cost producers generate cash through the cycle while marginal producers burn it; watch the cost-per-unit trend, not just headline revenue.
Horizon
1-3 yr $54.60 (5-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $79.94 at ~7% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $118.59 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.

LPG vs the Top Picks average

PillarLPGBook avgDiff
Quality8583+2
Growth5089-39
Value2876-48

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
-13.6 over 81 daily scores
From 62.8 (Jun 22) → 49.2 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

LPG at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD49.2/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY85.4GROWTH50.0VALUE27.8Reverse-DCF · Price implies roughly no growth from here.
PRICE vs OUR DCF FAIR VALUE$82$96.6FAIR-VALUE RANGE$57.6PRICEOur DCF fair value ~$87.6 · price $57.6 is 34% below it.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$57.6LOW $23.8HIGH $60Trading near its 52-week high ($23.8–$60).
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock+123%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-12.3%
90-day change+19.2%
Forward EPS estimate$4.11

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect LPG to earn is materially higher (+19.2%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
34
Position size
$1,960
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$43.23
25% below $57.64
$ at risk if stopped
$489.94
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

Dorian LPG Ltd. (LPG): score, valuation & FAQ

Dorian LPG Ltd. (LPG) is an Oil & Gas Midstream company that scores 49.2 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A) and P/E (A-). On valuation, LPG sits about 34% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 3% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten.

Is LPG a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores LPG 49.2 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. That is driven by Rev (A) and P/E (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Dorian LPG Ltd.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does LPG score 49.2 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on quality at 85.4 out of 100, with value the weakest pillar at 27.8 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. LPG earns its highest marks on Rev (A) and P/E (A-). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so LPG is measured against Oil & Gas Midstream peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is LPG overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $57.64, LPG sits about 34% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 3% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 7.6x P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in LPG?

Production-cost sensitivity — top-quartile cost producers generate cash through the cycle while marginal producers burn it; watch the cost-per-unit trend, not just headline revenue.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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