Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

PAGP analysis

Plains GP Holdings, L.P.Oil & Gas Midstream. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

PAGP
Plains GP Holdings, L.P. · Oil & Gas Midstream
FCF$2.4bB
Rev+12.2%B+
D/E0.56B
P/E76.7xD
PEG0.67A-
57.5Score
$26.84$6.3B
1Y Target$24.86Analyst consensus · 14 analysts
5Y Target$36.39Compound horizon
10Y Target$53.99Long-dated conviction
FCF$2.4bTTM
B
FCF $2.4b — solid, comfortably covers operations and capital return
Rev+12.2%TTM YoY
B+
Revenue +12.2% — above sector median, healthy trajectory
D/E0.56
B
D/E 0.56 — near the Energy debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/E76.7x
D
P/E 76.7 — most expensive decile in Energy (≈95th pctile)
PEG0.67
A-
PEG 0.67 — strong; Lynch's preferred zone

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 57.5
Quality58.8
Growth50.0
Value64.5
Why this score
  • Raising its dividend
  • Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
1% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value86% belowest. fair value ~$192
What the price assumes: outright free-cash-flow decline for the next decade — vs the ~14% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability14% · C+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Oil & Gas Midstream · market cap $6.3b. Trading near 52-week high of $27.17 — momentum setup, limited technical margin of safety. Revenue growing +12%, comfortably above the S&P median. PEG 0.67 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 14 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $24.86 (implying -7% upside).
Moat
Free cash flow runs well ahead of reported net income — non-cash charges (depreciation, intangible amortization) are holding down GAAP earnings while cash generation stays strong.
Risk
Trailing P/E 76.7x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. Trading within 1% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Dividend payout 456% of earnings on a 6.3% yield — distribution coverage is thin; one earnings stumble could force a dividend cut.
Horizon
1-3 yr $24.86 (14-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $36.39 at ~6% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $53.99 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

PAGP vs the Top Picks average

PillarPAGPBook avgDiff
Quality0.590.84-0.25
Growth0.500.84-0.34
Value0.650.78-0.14

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+5.4 over 47 daily scores
From 52.1 (Jun 22) → 57.5 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-1.8%
90-day change+2.7%
Forward EPS estimate$2.15

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect PAGP to earn is drifting higher (+2.7%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
74
Position size
$1,986
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$20.13
25% below $26.84
$ at risk if stopped
$496.54
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Plains GP Holdings, L.P. (PAGP): score, valuation & FAQ

Plains GP Holdings, L.P. (PAGP) is a Oil & Gas Midstream company that scores 57.5 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are PEG (A-) and Rev (B+), while P/E (D) rate weaker. On valuation, PAGP sits about 86% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies outright free-cash-flow decline over the next decade.

Is PAGP a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores PAGP 57.5 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by PEG (A-) and Rev (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Plains GP Holdings, L.P.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does PAGP score 57.5 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). PAGP earns its highest marks on PEG (A-) and Rev (B+), and is held back by P/E (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is PAGP overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $26.84, PAGP sits about 86% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies outright free-cash-flow decline over the next decade. It trades at a 76.7x P/E (graded D). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in PAGP?

Trailing P/E 76.7x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. Trading within 1% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Dividend payout 456% of earnings on a 6.3% yield — distribution coverage is thin; one earnings stumble could force a dividend cut.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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