Bull Rankings model

Plains GP Holdings, L.P. (PAGP) stock analysis

Oil & Gas Midstream. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
PAGP
Plains GP Holdings, L.P. · Oil & Gas Midstream
58.5Score
$26.62Oct 9 close$6.2B
1Y Target$26.38Analyst consensus · 13 analysts
5Y Target$38.63Compound horizon
10Y Target$57.30Long-dated conviction
FCF$2.4bTTM · 06/26
B
FCF $2.4b — solid, comfortably covers operations and capital return · TTM from SEC filings (OCF − CapEx), four quarters to 06/26.
Rev+12.2%TTM YoY
B+
Revenue +12.2% — above sector median, healthy trajectory · Latest four quarters of revenue vs the four before them, from SEC filings.
D/E0.56
B
D/E 0.56 — near the Energy debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/E60.5x
C
P/E 60.5 — expensive vs Energy peers (≈90th pctile)
PEG0.67
A-
PEG 0.67 — strong; the growth comes cheap

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 58.5
Quality70.0
Growth50.0
Value57.3
Why this score
  • Raising its dividend
  • Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
7% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value91% belowest. fair value ~$294
What the price assumes: free cash flow shrinking 25% or more next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~12% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Quality signals
Gross profitability14% · C+gross profit ÷ total assets — not in the score

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Oil & Gas Midstream · market cap $6.2b. 7% off the 52-week high of $28.70. Revenue growing +12%, comfortably above the S&P median. PEG 0.67 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 13 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $26.38 (implying -1% upside).
Moat
Free cash flow runs well ahead of reported net income.
Risk
Trailing P/E 60.5x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. Dividend payout 363% of earnings on a 6.3% yield — distribution coverage is thin; one earnings stumble could force a dividend cut. Net margin 1.1% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.
Horizon
1-3 yr $26.38 (13-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $38.63 at ~8% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $57.30 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.

PAGP vs the Top Picks average

PillarPAGPBook avgDiff
Quality7083-13
Growth5089-39
Value5776-19

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
+6.4 over 82 daily scores
From 52.1 (Jun 22) → 58.5 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

PAGP at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD58.5/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY70.0GROWTH50.0VALUE57.3Reverse-DCF · Price implies an outright decline from here.
PRICE vs OUR DCF FAIR VALUE$263–$349 ▸FAIR-VALUE RANGE · ▸ BEYOND THE SCALE$26.6PRICEOur DCF fair value ~$294 · price $26.6 is 91% below it.
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock+58%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$26.6LOW $16.7HIGH $28.7Trading at the 83rd percentile of its 52-week range ($16.7–$28.7).

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+1.2%
90-day change-5.7%
Forward EPS estimate$2.07

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect PAGP to earn is materially lower (-5.7%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
75
Position size
$1,997
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$19.96
25% below $26.62
$ at risk if stopped
$499.13
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

Plains GP Holdings, L.P. (PAGP): score, valuation & FAQ

Plains GP Holdings, L.P. (PAGP) is an Oil & Gas Midstream company that scores 58.5 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are PEG (A-) and Rev (B+). On valuation, PAGP sits about 91% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking 25% or more next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten.

Is PAGP a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores PAGP 58.5 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by PEG (A-) and Rev (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Plains GP Holdings, L.P.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does PAGP score 58.5 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on quality at 70.0 out of 100, with growth the weakest pillar at 50.0 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. PAGP earns its highest marks on PEG (A-) and Rev (B+). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so PAGP is measured against Oil & Gas Midstream peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is PAGP overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $26.62, PAGP sits about 91% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking 25% or more next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 60.5x P/E (graded C). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in PAGP?

Trailing P/E 60.5x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. Dividend payout 363% of earnings on a 6.3% yield — distribution coverage is thin; one earnings stumble could force a dividend cut. Net margin 1.1% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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