Beverages - Brewers. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.
★
STZ
Constellation Brands, Inc. · Beverages - Brewers
54.5Score
$122.64Oct 9 close$20.8B
1Y Target$151.74Analyst consensus · 23 analysts
5Y Target$191.57Compound horizon
10Y Target$245.68Long-dated conviction
FCF$1.8bTTM · 08/26C+
FCF $1.8b — respectable but not differentiating · TTM from SEC filings (OCF − CapEx), four quarters to 08/26.
Rev-4.3%TTM YoYD+
Revenue -4.3% — shrinking; needs a catalyst to reverse · Latest four quarters of revenue vs the four before them, from SEC filings.
D/E1.16C+
D/E 1.16 — above the Consumer Defensive debt median (≈75th pctile)
P/E11.0xA
P/E 11.0 — cheapest decile in Consumer Defensive (≈10th pctile)
PEG1.57C+
PEG 1.57 — modest premium; above fair value
Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology
Quality-growth score · 54.5
Quality73.2
Growth26.8
Value82.5
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
27% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value19% belowest. fair value ~$151
What the price assumes: free cash flow shrinking about 3% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~1% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Quality signals
Gross profitability22% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets — not in the score
ROIC11.6% · Breturn on invested capital — leads the quality score
Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards
Why now
Beverages - Brewers · market cap $20.8b. Down 27% from 52-week high of $168.60 — deep drawdown territory. 23 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $151.74 (implying +24% upside).
Moat
Net margin 21% sits well above the S&P median (~11%) — suggests structural pricing advantage or cost discipline competitors can't quickly close. ROE 22% is above 15% — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. FCF converts 96% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash.
Risk
Value re-rating depends on a catalyst. Without one — analyst day, divestiture, margin recovery, capital return — the stock can stay cheap on these multiples for years.
Horizon
1-3 yr $151.74 (23-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $191.57 at ~9% CAGR — dividend compounding plus earnings growth. 10 yr $245.68 if the moat survives secular pressure.
STZ vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
STZ
Book avg
Diff
Quality
73
83
-10
Growth
27
89
-62
Value
83
76
+7
Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.
Score history · STZ
Trend
-0.4 over 82 daily scores
From 54.9 (Jun 22) → 54.5 (now)
One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.
STZ at a glance
Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.
Analyst estimate revisions
30-day change
-1.0%
90-day change
-0.9%
Forward EPS estimate
$12.27
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect STZ to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →
Position sizing · STZ
$
%
%
Shares to buy
16
Position size
$1,962
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$91.98
25% below $122.64
$ at risk if stopped
$490.56
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.
Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ): score, valuation & FAQ
Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) is a Beverages - Brewers company that scores 54.5 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A), while Rev (D+) rate weaker. On valuation, STZ sits about 19% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 3% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten.
Is STZ a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores STZ 54.5 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by P/E (A). A score is a quantitative screen of Constellation Brands, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does STZ score 54.5 on Bull Rankings?
The score leans on value at 82.5 out of 100, with growth the weakest pillar at 26.8 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. STZ earns its highest marks on P/E (A), and is held back by Rev (D+). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so STZ is measured against Beverages - Brewers peers, not against the market as a whole.
Is STZ overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $122.64, STZ sits about 19% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 3% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten. It trades at an 11.0x P/E (graded A). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in STZ?
Value re-rating depends on a catalyst. Without one — analyst day, divestiture, margin recovery, capital return — the stock can stay cheap on these multiples for years.