Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

SHAK analysis

Shake Shack Inc.Restaurants. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Restaurants
SHAK
Shake Shack Inc. · Restaurants
FCF-$12mF
Rev+17.3%B+
D/E1.67C+
P/S2.1xC+
PEG3.24D
47.7Score
$75.44$3.2B
1Y Target$82.17Analyst consensus · 23 analysts
5Y Target$143.72Compound horizon
10Y Target$256.86Long-dated conviction
FCF-$12mTTM
F
FCF is negative (-$12m) — cash-burning phase; acceptable only for pre-profit spec names
Rev+17.3%TTM YoY
B+
Revenue +17.3% — above sector median, healthy trajectory
D/E1.67
C+
D/E 1.67 — above the Consumer Cyclical debt median (≈75th pctile)
P/S2.1x
C+
P/S 2.1x — above the Consumer Cyclical median (≈75th pctile)
PEG3.24est.
D
PEG 3.24 — very expensive; pricing in best-case scenarios · PEG derived: P/E ÷ forward 1-year analyst EPS growth, because this name has no vendor-supplied PEG. Same earnings-growth basis as the reported figure on other rows.

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 47.7
Quality46.2
Growth91.4
Value25.8
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
30% off the 12-month high
Quality signals · context only
ROIC5.5% · C+return on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Restaurants · market cap $3.2b. Down 30% from 52-week high of $107.49 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +17%, comfortably above the S&P median. 23 sell-side analysts publish a mean 1-yr target of $82.17 (implying +9% upside).
Moat
Higher-variance name — the moat signals on the quantitative card are modest, so the durability case rests on execution (turning current growth into durable earnings power) or an un-monetized asset (IP / network effects / first-mover position) rather than an entrenched competitive position.
Risk
Free cash flow is negative (-$12m) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Trailing P/E 80.3x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. Beta 1.66 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.
Horizon
1-3 yr $82.17 (23-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $143.72 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $256.86 — return distribution heavily skewed.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

SHAK vs the Top Picks average

PillarSHAKBook avgDiff
Quality0.460.84-0.38
Growth0.910.87+0.04
Value0.260.76-0.50

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-7.4 over 48 daily scores
From 55.1 (Jun 22) → 47.7 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-6.1%
90-day change-14.1%
Forward EPS estimate$1.40

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect SHAK to earn is materially lower (-14.1%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
26
Position size
$1,961
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$56.58
25% below $75.44
$ at risk if stopped
$490.36
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK): score, valuation & FAQ

Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) is a Restaurants company that scores 47.7 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (B+), while PEG (D) and FCF (F) rate weaker.

Is SHAK a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores SHAK 47.7 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. That is driven by Rev (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Shake Shack Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does SHAK score 47.7 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). SHAK earns its highest marks on Rev (B+), and is held back by PEG (D) and FCF (F). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is SHAK overvalued or undervalued?

We don't compute a reliable discounted-cash-flow value for SHAK — typically because it is not yet consistently profitable or free-cash-flow positive — so its valuation rests on growth and price-to-sales rather than on earnings-based intrinsic value. Judge it on the trajectory of the business, not a single multiple.

What are the main risks of investing in SHAK?

Free cash flow is negative (-$12m) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Trailing P/E 80.3x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. Beta 1.66 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

More Travel & Leisure stocks by score

All Consumer Cyclical rankings →

Analyze another ticker →