Bull Rankings model

Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD) stock analysis

Packaged Foods. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
SFD
Smithfield Foods, Inc. · Packaged Foods
41.8Score
$18.61Oct 9 close$7.3B
1Y Target$25.50Analyst consensus · 7 analysts
5Y Target$32.19Compound horizon
10Y Target$41.29Long-dated conviction
FCF$711mTTM · 12/25
C+
FCF $711m — respectable but not differentiating · TTM from SEC filings (OCF − CapEx), four quarters to 12/25.
Rev+4.3%TTM YoY
C+
Revenue +4.3% — steady but below market-beating range · Latest four quarters of revenue vs the four before them, from SEC filings.
D/E0.33
A-
D/E 0.33 — less debt than most Consumer Defensive peers (≈25th pctile)
P/E7.0x
A
P/E 7.0 — cheapest decile in Consumer Defensive (≈10th pctile)
PEG*—
—
PEG n/a — analysts expect next year's earnings to be no higher than last year's

* PEG n/a — analysts expect next year's earnings to be no higher than last year's

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 41.8
Quality72.7
Growth27.5
Value36.6
Why this score
  • Short track record
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
38% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value22% belowest. fair value ~$24
What the price assumes: free cash flow shrinking about 5% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~-1% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Quality signals
Gross profitability17% · C+gross profit ÷ total assets — not in the score
ROIC11.7% · Breturn on invested capital — leads the quality score

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Packaged Foods · market cap $7.3b. Down 38% from 52-week high of $29.80 — deep drawdown territory. 7 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $25.50 (implying +37% upside).
Moat
ROE 15% is above 15% — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately.
Risk
Down 38% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up.
Horizon
1-3 yr $25.50 (7-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $32.19 at ~12% CAGR — dividend compounding plus earnings growth. 10 yr $41.29 if the moat survives secular pressure.

SFD vs the Top Picks average

PillarSFDBook avgDiff
Quality7383-10
Growth2789-62
Value3776-39

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
-18.8 over 82 daily scores
From 60.6 (Jun 22) → 41.8 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

SFD at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD41.8/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY72.7GROWTH27.5VALUE36.6Reverse-DCF · Price implies roughly no growth from here.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$18.6LOW $18.4HIGH $29.8Trading near its 52-week low ($18.4–$29.8).
PRICE vs OUR DCF FAIR VALUE$21.6$25.4FAIR-VALUE RANGE$18.6PRICEOur DCF fair value ~$23.8 · price $18.6 is 22% below it.
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock-11%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-11.3%
90-day change-15.0%
Forward EPS estimate$2.17

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect SFD to earn is materially lower (-15.0%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
107
Position size
$1,991
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$13.96
25% below $18.61
$ at risk if stopped
$497.82
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD): score, valuation & FAQ

Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD) is a Packaged Foods company that scores 41.8 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A) and D/E (A-). On valuation, SFD sits about 22% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 5% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten.

Is SFD a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores SFD 41.8 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. That is driven by P/E (A) and D/E (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Smithfield Foods, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does SFD score 41.8 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on quality at 72.7 out of 100, with growth the weakest pillar at 27.5 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. SFD earns its highest marks on P/E (A) and D/E (A-). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so SFD is measured against Packaged Foods peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is SFD overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $18.61, SFD sits about 22% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 5% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 7.0x P/E (graded A). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in SFD?

Down 38% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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