Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

RUN analysis

Sunrun Inc.Solar. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Clean Energy
RUN
Sunrun Inc. · Solar
FCF-$308mF
Rev+52.4%A
D/E3.00D
P/S0.7xA
PEG3.07D
29.7Score
$9.52$2.3B
1Y Target$18.84Analyst consensus · 19 analysts
5Y Target$32.95Compound horizon
10Y Target$83.57Long-dated conviction
FCF-$308mTTM
F
FCF is negative (-$308m) — cash-burning phase; acceptable only for pre-profit spec names
Rev+52.4%TTM YoY
A
Revenue +52.4% — hypergrowth, top decile
D/E3.00
D
D/E 3.00 — most levered decile in Technology (≈95th pctile)
P/S0.7x
A
P/S 0.7x — cheapest decile in Technology (≈10th pctile)
PEG3.07
D
PEG 3.07 — very expensive; pricing in best-case scenarios

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 29.7
Quality0.13
Growth0.50
Value0.40
Why this score
  • Diluting shareholders
  • Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
58% off the 12-month high
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability13% · C+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC-0.7% · Freturn on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Solar · market cap $2.3b. Down 58% from 52-week high of $22.44 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +52% — in hypergrowth territory. 19 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $18.84 (implying +98% upside).
Moat
Turnaround / out-of-favor name — GAAP-unprofitable for now, so the durability case is forward-looking: it rests on a recovery (margin normalization, a cyclical upturn or restructuring) or an un-monetized asset (IP / network effects / first-mover position) rather than on current reported results.
Risk
D/E 3.00 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Free cash flow is negative (-$308m) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Down 58% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up.
Horizon
1-3 yr $18.84 (19-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $32.95 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $83.57 — return distribution heavily skewed.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Trend
+1.7 over 31 daily scores
From 28.0 (Jun 22) → 29.7 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
210
Position size
$1,999
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$7.14
25% below $9.52
$ at risk if stopped
$499.80
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Sunrun Inc. (RUN): score, valuation & FAQ

Sunrun Inc. (RUN) is a Solar company that scores 29.7 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a weak reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A) and P/S (A), while PEG (D) and FCF (F) rate weaker.

Is RUN a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores RUN 29.7 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a weak reading. That is driven by Rev (A) and P/S (A). A score is a quantitative screen of Sunrun Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does RUN score 29.7 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). RUN earns its highest marks on Rev (A) and P/S (A), and is held back by PEG (D) and FCF (F). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is RUN overvalued or undervalued?

We don't compute a reliable discounted-cash-flow value for RUN — typically because it is not yet consistently profitable or free-cash-flow positive — so its valuation rests on growth and price-to-sales rather than on earnings-based intrinsic value. Judge it on the trajectory of the business, not a single multiple.

What are the main risks of investing in RUN?

D/E 3.00 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Free cash flow is negative (-$308m) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Down 58% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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