Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

ENPH analysis

Enphase Energy, Inc.Solar. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Clean Energy
ENPH
Enphase Energy, Inc. · Solar
FCF$145mC
Rev-1.6%D+
D/E0.56B
P/E37.0xB
PEG1.03B+
46.9Score
$37.38$4.9B
1Y Target$48.93Analyst consensus · 26 analysts
5Y Target$71.65Compound horizon
10Y Target$106.28Long-dated conviction
FCF$145mTTM
C
FCF $145m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev-1.6%TTM YoY
D+
Revenue -1.6% — shrinking; needs a catalyst to reverse
D/E0.56
B
D/E 0.56 — near the Technology debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/E37.0x
B
P/E 37.0 — near the Technology median (≈60th pctile)
PEG1.03
B+
PEG 1.03 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0)

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 46.9
Quality0.51
Growth0.37
Value0.55
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
49% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value157% aboveest. fair value ~$15
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~37% a year for the next decade — vs the ~17% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability23% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC4.5% · C+return on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Solar · market cap $4.9b. Down 49% from 52-week high of $73.74 — deep drawdown territory. 26 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $48.93 (implying +31% upside).
Moat
ROE 12% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere. FCF converts 107% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Down 49% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Beta 1.61 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. Trailing P/E 37x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates.
Horizon
1-3 yr $48.93 (26-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $71.65 at ~14% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $106.28 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Trend
-0.8 over 31 daily scores
From 47.7 (Jun 22) → 46.9 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
53
Position size
$1,981
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$28.04
25% below $37.38
$ at risk if stopped
$495.29
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH): score, valuation & FAQ

Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH) is a Solar company that scores 46.9 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are PEG (B+), while Rev (D+) rate weaker. On valuation, ENPH sits about 157% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 37% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is ENPH a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores ENPH 46.9 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. That is driven by PEG (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Enphase Energy, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does ENPH score 46.9 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). ENPH earns its highest marks on PEG (B+), and is held back by Rev (D+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is ENPH overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $37.38, ENPH sits about 157% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 37% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 37.0x× P/E (graded B). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in ENPH?

Down 49% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Beta 1.61 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. Trailing P/E 37x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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