1Y Target$243.59Near-term target
5Y Target$345.06Compound horizon
10Y Target$440.45Long-dated conviction
FCF$1.7bTTM · 03/26C+FCF $1.7b — respectable but not differentiating · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+23.6%TTM YoYA-Revenue +23.6% — strong growth, well above S&P median (~7%)
D/E0.06AD/E 0.06 — essentially debt-free, pristine balance sheet
P/E16.7xB+P/E 16.7 — at or below S&P median, reasonable
PEG0.68A-PEG 0.68 — strong; Lynch's preferred zone
Why now
Solar · market cap $27.7b. 10% off the 52-week high of $285.99. Revenue growing +24%, comfortably above the S&P median. PEG 0.68 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 27 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $243.59 (implying -6% upside).
Moat
Net margin 31% is exceptional — pricing-power territory rare outside premium software, branded staples, and specialty pharma. ROE 18% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. FCF converts 100% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Beta 1.56 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.
Horizon
1-3 yr $243.59 (27-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $345.06 at ~6% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $440.45 if the moat survives secular pressure.
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