Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

FSLR analysis

First Solar, Inc.Solar. Scored on the same transparent 7-signal model behind the daily rankings.

FSLR
First Solar, Inc. · Solar
FCF$1.7bC+
Rev+27.3%A-
D/E0.06A-
P/E13.7xA-
PEG0.58A-
70.7Score
$211.99$22.8B
1Y Target$254.25Analyst consensus · 28 analysts
5Y Target$320.99Compound horizon
10Y Target$411.66Long-dated conviction
FCF$1.7bTTM
C+
FCF $1.7b — respectable but not differentiating
Rev+27.3%TTM YoY
A-
Revenue +27.3% — strong growth, well above S&P median (~7%)
D/E0.06
A-
D/E 0.06 — less debt than most Technology peers (≈25th pctile)
P/E13.7x
A-
P/E 13.7 — cheaper than most Technology peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG0.58
A-
PEG 0.58 — strong; Lynch's preferred zone

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 70.7
Quality0.79
Growth0.50
Value0.89
Why this score
  • Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
34% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value7% belowest. fair value ~$228
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~13% a year for the next decade — vs the ~25% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability17% · C+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC13.2% · B+return on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
First Solar’s cadmium‑telluride (CdTe) modules are winning large‑scale utility and corporate contracts, driving a revenue surge of 27.3% YoY while delivering a rock‑solid 30.7% profit margin that fuels $1.7 b of free cash flow – the combination that will keep earnings compounding as the world accelerates solar adoption.
Moat
The thin‑film CdTe technology gives First Solar a cost‑per‑watt advantage and superior temperature performance that utilities and large corporate buyers can’t easily replace, while its ultra‑low debt‑to‑equity of 0.06 lets the company reinvest cash into capacity without diluting shareholders, reinforcing pricing power reflected in a 16.9% ROE.
Risk
A high beta of 1.73 and a modest Growth pillar (50) expose First Solar to cyclical swings in utility‑driven capex; if the next‑year’s solar‑project pipeline stalls, the current PE of 13.7 may not translate into earnings growth, and a slowdown would validate the model’s cyclical‑growth warning. A sustained dip in project awards would break the compounding thesis.
Horizon
1-3 yr $254.25 (28-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $320.99 at ~9% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $411.66 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Trend
+2.9 over 22 daily scores
From 67.8 (Jun 22) → 70.7 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
9
Position size
$1,908
3.8% of portfolio
Stop price
$158.99
25% below $211.99
$ at risk if stopped
$476.98
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

First Solar, Inc. (FSLR): score, valuation & FAQ

First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) is a Solar company that scores 70.7 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A-), D/E (A-) and P/E (A-). On valuation, FSLR sits about 7% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly 13% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is FSLR a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores FSLR 70.7 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by Rev (A-), D/E (A-) and P/E (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of First Solar, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does FSLR score 70.7 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). FSLR earns its highest marks on Rev (A-), D/E (A-) and P/E (A-). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is FSLR overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $211.99, FSLR sits about 7% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly 13% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 13.7x× P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in FSLR?

A high beta of 1.73 and a modest Growth pillar (50) expose First Solar to cyclical swings in utility‑driven capex; if the next‑year’s solar‑project pipeline stalls, the current PE of 13.7 may not translate into earnings growth, and a slowdown would validate the model’s cyclical‑growth warning. A sustained dip in project awards would break the compounding thesis.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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