Bull Rankings model

Pinterest, Inc. (PINS) stock analysis

Internet Content & Information. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
PINS
Pinterest, Inc. · Internet Content & Information
59.3Score
$21.40Oct 9 close$12.1B
1Y Target$29.05Analyst consensus · 35 analysts
5Y Target$42.53Compound horizon
10Y Target$63.09Long-dated conviction
FCF$1.3bTTM · 06/26
C+
FCF $1.3b — respectable but not differentiating · TTM from SEC filings (OCF − CapEx), four quarters to 06/26.
Rev+16.6%TTM YoY
B+
Revenue +16.6% — above sector median, healthy trajectory · Latest four quarters of revenue vs the four before them, from SEC filings.
D/E0.41
B+
D/E 0.41 — below the Communication Services debt median (≈40th pctile)
P/E61.1x
C
P/E 61.1 — expensive vs Communication Services peers (≈90th pctile)
PEG0.27
A
PEG 0.27 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 59.3
Quality62.5
Growth90.0
Value37.2
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
40% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value58% belowest. fair value ~$51
What the price assumes: free cash flow shrinking about 9% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~19% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Quality signals
Gross profitability76% · Agross profit ÷ total assets — not in the score
ROIC6.1% · C+return on invested capital — leads the quality score

Model-generatedWritten from the fundamentals then; figures in the text are as of that day, today's are above · Editorial standards

Why now
Pinterest is the only scaled visual discovery platform where users search, save, and shop ideas in one place — a flywheel that turns user intent into advertiser ROI faster than social feeds. With 16.6% revenue growth and $1.3B in trailing free cash flow, the core ad auction and shopping features are monetizing at scale while still underpenetrated in international markets. The Bull Rankings model gives this growth pillar a 86/100, the highest among peers, because the platform’s unique structure locks in advertiser spend as user activity compounds. The crux: if shopping intent keeps migrating from search engines to Pinterest, the ad load can double without hurting user experience.
Moat
Pinterest’s moat is the data feedback loop between user saves and advertiser auctions: every saved pin improves future ad targeting, which increases advertiser ROI, which funds more inventory, which attracts more users. This cycle delivers an ROE of 8.6%, underpinned by near-zero marginal cost for incremental ad impressions once the platform reaches scale. Competitors can copy the UI, but they cannot replicate the decade-long corpus of user-curated pins that trains the recommendation engine — a dataset that grows more valuable as it ages.
Risk
Pinterest’s P/E of 62.4x assumes the visual search revolution lasts forever, but if TikTok or Instagram absorb shopping intent, ad budgets could flee just as quickly as they arrived. The Bull Rankings model flags Quality as the weakest pillar at 63/100, with a reverse-DCF implying -10% annual FCF growth for a decade — a bet that growth will offset valuation compression. The bear case snaps into focus if revenue growth slips below 10% or if the debt-to-equity ratio of 0.41 starts creeping higher to fund unproven bets.
Horizon
1-3 yr $29.05 (35-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $42.53 at ~15% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $63.09 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.

PINS vs the Top Picks average

PillarPINSBook avgDiff
Quality6283-21
Growth9089in line
Value3776-39

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
-16.7 over 82 daily scores
From 76.0 (Jun 22) → 59.3 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

PINS at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD59.3/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY62.5GROWTH90.0VALUE37.2Reverse-DCF · Price implies roughly no growth from here.
PRICE vs OUR DCF FAIR VALUE$41.8$66.9FAIR-VALUE RANGE$21.4PRICEOur DCF fair value ~$50.5 · price $21.4 is 58% below it.
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock-32%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$21.4LOW $13.8HIGH $35.4Trading at the 35th percentile of its 52-week range ($13.8–$35.4).

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-0.1%
90-day change+7.3%
Forward EPS estimate$2.40

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect PINS to earn is materially higher (+7.3%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
93
Position size
$1,990
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$16.05
25% below $21.40
$ at risk if stopped
$497.55
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

The Bull Rankings deep dive

Analysis as of · figures are as written that day and are not updated. Today's numbers are in the cards above.

Written by the Bull Rankings model from fundamentals as of , and checked against those figures. How we source & verify every figure →

The Bull Rankings scorecard — our quality-growth score is 70.3 / 100, built from three pillars scored 0–100: Quality 63, Growth 86, Value 65 (valuation is judged against sector peers). At today's price, our reverse-DCF read says the market is implicitly betting on free cash flow shrinking about 13% next year, then recovering toward 3% a year by year ten — a gauge of how much optimism is already in the stock.

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD70.3/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY62.6GROWTH85.8VALUE64.7Reverse-DCF · Price implies roughly no growth from here.

The thesis

ANALYST PRICE TARGETS$28.9$18.8TODAY$22 LOWHIGH $42.436 analysts average $28.9, 54% above today's $18.8. A targetis an opinion, not a valuation - our DCF is the independentread.

Pinterest’s price is a discount to a business that is still scaling fast enough to justify a high valuation. The Bull Rankings model gives it a 70.3/100 quality‑growth score, with Growth at 86, Quality at 63, and Value at 65. Growth is the story here: a 16.6 % YoY revenue rise and a free‑cash‑flow of $1.3 billion in the TTM. The model’s reverse‑DCF shows the market is pricing in a negative 13 % growth in year 1 that eases to 3 % by year 10— a trajectory far below the current 16.6 % revenue growth. In other words, the price assumes Pinterest’s cash flow shrinks, even though the business is still growing fast. That pessimism looks overdone given a solid advertising engine and a user base that keeps returning to the platform.

What the business actually is

REVENUE TO CASHRevenue$4.6b · 100%Net income$248.9m · 5.5%Free cash flow$1.3b · 28.1%Cash flow exceeds reported profit — high-quality earnings.

Pinterest is a visual search and discovery platform that lets users find ideas—recipes, home and style inspiration, and more—across the United States, Canada, Europe, and internationally. Users can search, save, and shop those ideas, while advertisers pay to reach them through Pinterest’s ad auction. The core product lines are the visual search engine, the ad auction platform, and the shopping‑enabled pins that turn inspiration into purchase intent. The advertising segment is the revenue engine, with advertisers buying inventory to connect with users at moments of intent.

Why it can (or can’t) keep compounding

Pinterest’s moat is two‑fold. First, the network effect: every new pin adds value to the search graph, making it richer for all users. Second, the advertising auction is highly optimized for business outcomes, giving advertisers a clear ROI signal that keeps them invested. The company’s profit margin of 5.5 % and ROE of 8.6 % show that it can squeeze cash from its scale. With a debt‑to‑equity of 0.41 and a beta of 0.89, the capital structure is lean and the risk profile is moderate. These factors combine to create a durable competitive advantage that competitors cannot replicate overnight; building a visual search engine with a large, engaged user base and a sophisticated ad platform takes years and significant capital.

The valuation question

PRICE vs OUR DCF FAIR VALUE$42.3$65.7FAIR-VALUE RANGE$18.8PRICEOur DCF fair value ~$51.8 · price $18.8 is 176% below it.

At a current price of $18.76, the P/E is 55.2 and the PEG is 0.27. The PEG of 0.27 says the multiple is low against the earnings growth analysts expect, even though the headline P/E looks high. The reverse‑DCF implied growth of –13 % in year 1, tapering to 3 % by year 10, is far below the 16.6 % revenue growth, implying that the market expects Pinterest’s cash flow to shrink before it recovers. Free cash flow of $1.3 billion against a market cap of about $10.5 billion is a double‑digit cash‑flow yield, which is why the implied growth is so low. In short, the price assumes cash flow shrinks, a gloomy read for a business growing revenue at 16.6 %.

The bear case

Pinterest’s weakest pillar is Value at 65, though a 65 still sits on the cheap side of peers. The high P/E of 55.2 means earnings must keep growing quickly to support the price. If the advertising revenue growth stalls or if user engagement drops, the free‑cash‑flow could shrink, eroding the margin and ROE. A single metric that would confirm this scenario is a decline in the 16.6 % revenue growth to below 10 %, which would make the reverse‑DCF’s pessimistic path look realistic.

What would change our mind

  1. Revenue growth falling below 10 % would undermine the Growth score and the implied growth trajectory.
  2. Profit margin slipping below 5 % would erode the company’s ability to generate free cash flow, weakening the Quality pillar.
  3. Debt‑to‑equity rising above 0.5 would signal financial stress, pushing the Quality score lower and increasing risk.

If any of these thresholds are breached, the current thesis would need to be revisited.

Pinterest, Inc. (PINS): score, valuation & FAQ

Pinterest, Inc. (PINS) is an Internet Content & Information company that scores 59.3 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are PEG (A), Rev (B+) and D/E (B+). On valuation, PINS sits about 58% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 9% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten.

Is PINS a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores PINS 59.3 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by PEG (A), Rev (B+) and D/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Pinterest, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does PINS score 59.3 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on growth at 90.0 out of 100, with value the weakest pillar at 37.2 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. PINS earns its highest marks on PEG (A), Rev (B+) and D/E (B+). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so PINS is measured against Internet Content & Information peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is PINS overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $21.40, PINS sits about 58% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 9% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 61.1x P/E (graded C). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in PINS?

Pinterest’s P/E of 62.4x assumes the visual search revolution lasts forever, but if TikTok or Instagram absorb shopping intent, ad budgets could flee just as quickly as they arrived. The Bull Rankings model flags Quality as the weakest pillar at 63/100, with a reverse-DCF implying -10% annual FCF growth for a decade — a bet that growth will offset valuation compression. The bear case snaps into focus if revenue growth slips below 10% or if the debt-to-equity ratio of 0.41 starts creeping higher to fund unproven bets.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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