Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

PHM analysis

PulteGroup, Inc.Residential Construction. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Housing & Homebuilders
PHM
PulteGroup, Inc. · Residential Construction
FCF$1.5bC+
Rev-7.3%D
D/E0.19A-
P/E13.2xA-
PEG1.11B+
55.3Score
$129.29$24.6B
1Y Target$140.62Analyst consensus · 13 analysts
5Y Target$177.52Compound horizon
10Y Target$227.67Long-dated conviction
FCF$1.5bTTM
C+
FCF $1.5b — respectable but not differentiating
Rev-7.3%TTM YoY
D
Revenue -7.3% — meaningful contraction
D/E0.19
A-
D/E 0.19 — less debt than most Consumer Cyclical peers (≈25th pctile)
P/E13.2x
A-
P/E 13.2 — cheaper than most Consumer Cyclical peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG1.11
B+
PEG 1.11 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0)

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 55.3
Quality0.79
Growth0.50
Value0.43
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
  • Raising its dividend
  • Revenue shrinking
  • Short track record
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
11% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value9% aboveest. fair value ~$118
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~9% a year for the next decade — vs the ~10% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Why now
Residential Construction · market cap $24.6b. 11% off the 52-week high of $144.50. Revenue -7% — in contraction; any catalyst that reverses this triggers re-rating. 13 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $140.62 (implying +9% upside).
Moat
ROE 15% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere.
Risk
Revenue contracting -7% — the operational turn is not yet visible in the top line.
Horizon
1-3 yr $140.62 (13-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $177.52 at ~7% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $227.67 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

PHM vs the Top Picks average

PillarPHMBook avgDiff
Quality0.790.83-0.04
Growth0.500.91-0.41
Value0.430.75-0.32

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.8). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+1.8 over 32 daily scores
From 53.5 (Jun 22) → 55.3 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
15
Position size
$1,939
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$96.97
25% below $129.29
$ at risk if stopped
$484.84
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM): score, valuation & FAQ

PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) is a Residential Construction company that scores 55.3 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A-), P/E (A-) and PEG (B+), while Rev (D) rate weaker. On valuation, PHM sits about 9% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 9% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is PHM a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores PHM 55.3 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by D/E (A-), P/E (A-) and PEG (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of PulteGroup, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does PHM score 55.3 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). PHM earns its highest marks on D/E (A-), P/E (A-) and PEG (B+), and is held back by Rev (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is PHM overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $129.29, PHM sits about 9% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 9% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 13.2x× P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in PHM?

Revenue contracting -7% — the operational turn is not yet visible in the top line.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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