Pembina Pipeline Corporation — Oil & Gas Midstream. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.
★
PBA
Pembina Pipeline Corporation · Oil & Gas Midstream
FCF$1.4bC+
Rev+5.3%C+
D/E0.82C+
P/E27.4xC+
PEG2.74C
45.6Score
$51.29$29.8B
1Y Target$58.98Model estimate · no analyst coverage
5Y Target$86.36Compound horizon
10Y Target$128.11Long-dated conviction
FCF$1.4bTTM · 03/26C+
FCF $1.4b — respectable but not differentiating · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+5.3%TTM YoYC+
Revenue +5.3% — steady but below market-beating range
D/E0.82C+
D/E 0.82 — above the Energy debt median (≈75th pctile)
P/E27.4xC+
P/E 27.4 — above the Energy median (≈75th pctile)
PEG2.74C
PEG 2.74 — expensive relative to growth rate
Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.
Quality-growth score · 45.6
Quality68.4
Growth50.0
Value32.3
Why this score
Cyclical growth
Foreign reporter (CAD)
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
1% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value12% aboveest. fair value ~$46
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~5% a year for the next decade — vs the ~2% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability8% · Cgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC7.8% · C+return on invested capital — not score-weighted
Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.
Why now
Pembina’s core Pipelines segment, with 3.0 MMboe/d of transport capacity, is locked into long‑term contracts that keep cash flowing at a 21.8% profit margin and generate $1.5 B of free cash flow on a $28.1 B market cap. Our Bull Rankings model gives the business a Quality score of 69 – the strongest pillar – indicating a resilient, cash‑rich operation, while the reverse‑DCF shows the market is only pricing in ~3% FCF growth versus the actual 5.3% revenue growth, leaving upside baked in. The thesis rests on the Pipelines segment’s contract‑backed cash generation continuing to compound.
Moat
The Pipelines network is a high‑barrier, asset‑intensive platform that serves oil‑sand and heavy‑oil producers who cannot switch to alternate routes without incurring massive capex, creating a de‑facto lock‑in. This scale underpins the 10 M‑barrel ground storage capacity and supports the 21.8% margin, giving Pembina pricing power that competitors cannot quickly replicate.
Risk
The bear case hinges on the cyclical nature of oil‑sand volumes; a sustained demand dip would pressure the 5.3% revenue growth and compress the 21.8% margin, while the 0.81 debt‑to‑equity ratio leaves limited headroom for additional capex if cash flow wanes. A break‑down in contract renewals would push the P/E of 23.6 into double‑digit territory and validate the model’s weakest pillar – Value – as the stock would be over‑priced relative to its growth prospects. A sharp drop in oil‑sand throughput would confirm this risk.
Horizon
1-3 yr $58.98 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $86.36 at ~11% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $128.11 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
PBA vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
PBA
Book avg
Diff
Quality
0.68
0.83
-0.15
Growth
0.50
0.87
-0.37
Value
0.32
0.76
-0.44
Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.6). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.
Score history · PBA
Trend
-2.4 over 51 daily scores
From 48.0 (Jun 22) → 45.6 (now)
One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.
PBA at a glance
Every figure here comes from the same audited fundamentals behind the score. Charts drawn from data the score does not use say so on the card.
Analyst estimate revisions
30-day change
+3.2%
90-day change
+2.8%
Forward EPS estimate
$2.27
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect PBA to earn is drifting higher (+2.8%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →
Position sizing · PBA
$
%
%
Shares to buy
38
Position size
$1,949
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$38.47
25% below $51.29
$ at risk if stopped
$487.25
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.
Pembina Pipeline Corporation (PBA) is a Oil & Gas Midstream company that scores 45.6 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
On valuation, PBA sits about 12% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 5% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.
Is PBA a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores PBA 45.6 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. A score is a quantitative screen of Pembina Pipeline Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does PBA score 45.6 on Bull Rankings?
The score leans on quality at 68.4 out of 100, with value the weakest pillar at 32.3 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. PBA grades middle-of-pack across the graded signals. Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so PBA is measured against Oil & Gas Midstream peers, not against the market as a whole.
Is PBA overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $51.29, PBA sits about 12% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 5% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 27.4x P/E (graded C+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in PBA?
The bear case hinges on the cyclical nature of oil‑sand volumes; a sustained demand dip would pressure the 5.3% revenue growth and compress the 21.8% margin, while the 0.81 debt‑to‑equity ratio leaves limited headroom for additional capex if cash flow wanes. A break‑down in contract renewals would push the P/E of 23.6 into double‑digit territory and validate the model’s weakest pillar – Value – as the stock would be over‑priced relative to its growth prospects. A sharp drop in oil‑sand throughput would confirm this risk.
Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.