Bull Rankings model

Teekay Tankers Ltd. (TNK) stock analysis

Oil & Gas Midstream. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
TNK
Teekay Tankers Ltd. · Oil & Gas Midstream
57.1Score
$106.14Oct 9 close$3.7B
1Y Target$96.80Analyst consensus · 5 analysts
5Y Target$122.21Compound horizon
10Y Target$156.73Long-dated conviction
FCF$116mFY · 12/25
C
FCF $116m — modest; watch for margin expansion · From the fiscal year ended 12/25 in SEC filings (OCF − CapEx) — this company files no quarterly cash-flow series, so a trailing-twelve-month figure can't be assembled.
Rev-22.6%FY YoY
F
Revenue -22.6% — severe decline · Latest fiscal year vs the prior one, from SEC filings — a trailing-twelve-month comparison couldn't be assembled from this company's filings.
D/E0.02
A
D/E 0.02 — least levered decile in Energy (≈10th pctile)
P/E6.3x
A
P/E 6.3 — cheapest decile in Energy (≈10th pctile)
PEG1.10
B+
PEG 1.10 — near fair value (1.0 is the usual benchmark)

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 57.1
Quality70.9
Growth41.3
Value63.7
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
1% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value163% aboveest. fair value ~$40
What the price assumes: free cash flow growing about 23% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~-5% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Quality signals
Gross profitability28% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets — not in the score
ROIC11.9% · Breturn on invested capital — leads the quality score

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Oil & Gas Midstream · market cap $3.7b. Trading near 52-week high of $107.39 — momentum setup, limited technical margin of safety. Revenue -23% — in contraction; any catalyst that reverses this triggers re-rating. 5 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $96.80 (implying -9% upside).
Moat
Net margin 37% is exceptional — pricing-power territory rare outside premium software, branded staples, and specialty pharma. ROE 17% is above 15% — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately.
Risk
Revenue contracting -23% — the operational turn is not yet visible in the top line. Trading within 1% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Commodity exposure — earnings power tracks the price of the underlying commodity, not management execution. A 15-20% move in the commodity reprices the equity well before fundamentals catch up.
Horizon
1-3 yr $96.80 (5-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $122.21 at ~3% CAGR — dividend compounding plus earnings growth. 10 yr $156.73 if the moat survives secular pressure.

TNK vs the Top Picks average

PillarTNKBook avgDiff
Quality7183-12
Growth4189-48
Value6476-12

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
+16.0 over 82 daily scores
From 41.1 (Jun 22) → 57.1 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

TNK at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD57.1/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY70.9GROWTH41.3VALUE63.7Reverse-DCF · Price implies ~23% growth a year from here.
PRICE vs OUR DCF FAIR VALUE$34.4$45.3FAIR-VALUE RANGE$106PRICEOur DCF fair value ~$40.3 · price $106 is 163% above it.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$106LOW $47.2HIGH $107Trading near its 52-week high ($47.2–$107).
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock+117%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+0.0%
90-day change+13.0%
Forward EPS estimate$10.17

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect TNK to earn is materially higher (+13.0%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A fiscal-year roll fell inside this window: the forward horizon moved on to the next financial year, which shifts the earnings figure without any analyst changing their view. That step is excluded, so the number above covers the rest of the window rather than all of it.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
18
Position size
$1,911
3.8% of portfolio
Stop price
$79.61
25% below $106.14
$ at risk if stopped
$477.63
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

Teekay Tankers Ltd. (TNK): score, valuation & FAQ

Teekay Tankers Ltd. (TNK) is an Oil & Gas Midstream company that scores 57.1 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A), P/E (A) and PEG (B+), while Rev (F) rate weaker. On valuation, TNK sits about 163% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 23% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten.

Is TNK a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores TNK 57.1 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by D/E (A), P/E (A) and PEG (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Teekay Tankers Ltd.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does TNK score 57.1 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on quality at 70.9 out of 100, with growth the weakest pillar at 41.3 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. TNK earns its highest marks on D/E (A), P/E (A) and PEG (B+), and is held back by Rev (F). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so TNK is measured against Oil & Gas Midstream peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is TNK overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $106.14, TNK sits about 163% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 23% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 6.3x P/E (graded A). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in TNK?

Revenue contracting -23% — the operational turn is not yet visible in the top line. Trading within 1% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Commodity exposure — earnings power tracks the price of the underlying commodity, not management execution. A 15-20% move in the commodity reprices the equity well before fundamentals catch up.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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