Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

MZTI analysis

The Marzetti CompanyPackaged Foods. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

MZTI
The Marzetti Company · Packaged Foods
FCF$248mC
Rev+2.8%C
D/E0.04A
P/E18.2xB+
PEG3.12D
65.5Score
$115.90$3.2B
1Y Target$159.40Analyst consensus · 5 analysts
5Y Target$233.38Compound horizon
10Y Target$346.20Long-dated conviction
FCF$248mTTM
C
FCF $248m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev+2.8%TTM YoY
C
Revenue +2.8% — flat, mature phase or headwinds present
D/E0.04
A
D/E 0.04 — least levered decile in Consumer Defensive (≈10th pctile)
P/E18.2x
B+
P/E 18.2 — below the Consumer Defensive median (≈40th pctile)
PEG3.12
D
PEG 3.12 — very expensive; pricing in best-case scenarios

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 65.5
Quality83.0
Growth59.9
Value56.4
Why this score
  • Raising its dividend
  • Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
39% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value20% belowest. fair value ~$146
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~0% a year for the next decade — vs the ~7% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability35% · B+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC16.6% · A-return on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Packaged Foods · market cap $3.2b. Down 39% from 52-week high of $190.96 — deep drawdown territory. 5 sell-side analysts publish a mean 1-yr target of $159.40 (implying +38% upside).
Moat
ROE 17% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. FCF converts 141% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Down 39% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up.
Horizon
1-3 yr $159.40 (5-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $233.38 at ~15% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $346.20 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

MZTI vs the Top Picks average

PillarMZTIBook avgDiff
Quality0.830.84in line
Growth0.600.92-0.32
Value0.560.75-0.19

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 82.9). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+0.2 over 40 daily scores
From 65.3 (Jun 22) → 65.5 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
17
Position size
$1,970
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$86.93
25% below $115.90
$ at risk if stopped
$492.58
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

The Marzetti Company (MZTI): score, valuation & FAQ

The Marzetti Company (MZTI) is a Packaged Foods company that scores 65.5 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A) and P/E (B+), while PEG (D) rate weaker. On valuation, MZTI sits about 20% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly 0% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is MZTI a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores MZTI 65.5 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by D/E (A) and P/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of The Marzetti Company's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does MZTI score 65.5 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). MZTI earns its highest marks on D/E (A) and P/E (B+), and is held back by PEG (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is MZTI overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $115.90, MZTI sits about 20% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly 0% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 18.2x× P/E (graded B+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in MZTI?

Down 39% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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