Bull Rankings model

The Marzetti Company (MZTI) stock analysis

Packaged Foods. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
MZTI
The Marzetti Company · Packaged Foods
51.9Score
$99.30Oct 9 close$2.7B
1Y Target$146.60Analyst consensus · 5 analysts
5Y Target$185.08Compound horizon
10Y Target$237.36Long-dated conviction
FCF$206mTTM · 06/26
C
FCF $206m — modest; watch for margin expansion · TTM from SEC filings (OCF − CapEx), four quarters to 06/26.
Rev+1.1%TTM YoY
C
Revenue +1.1% — flat, mature phase or headwinds present · Latest four quarters of revenue vs the four before them, from SEC filings.
D/E0.24
A-
D/E 0.24 — less debt than most Consumer Defensive peers (≈25th pctile)
P/E14.2x
A-
P/E 14.2 — cheaper than most Consumer Defensive peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG3.12
D
PEG 3.12 — very expensive; pricing in best-case scenarios

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 51.9
Quality81.4
Growth34.9
Value49.1
Why this score
  • Raising its dividend
  • Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
44% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value10% belowest. fair value ~$110
What the price assumes: free cash flow growing about 1% next year, rising to 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~3% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Quality signals
Gross profitability30% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets — not in the score
ROIC15.1% · A-return on invested capital — leads the quality score

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Packaged Foods · market cap $2.7b. Down 44% from 52-week high of $176.26 — deep drawdown territory. 5 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $146.60 (implying +48% upside).
Moat
ROE 18% is above 15% — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. FCF converts 108% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash.
Risk
Down 44% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up.
Horizon
1-3 yr $146.60 (5-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $185.08 at ~13% CAGR — dividend compounding plus earnings growth. 10 yr $237.36 if the moat survives secular pressure.

MZTI vs the Top Picks average

PillarMZTIBook avgDiff
Quality8183-2
Growth3589-54
Value4976-27

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
-13.4 over 82 daily scores
From 65.3 (Jun 22) → 51.9 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

MZTI at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD51.9/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY81.4GROWTH34.9VALUE49.1Reverse-DCF · Price implies ~1% growth a year from here.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$99.3LOW $97HIGH $176Trading near its 52-week low ($97–$176).
PRICE vs OUR DCF FAIR VALUE$109$111FAIR-VALUE RANGE$99.3PRICEOur DCF fair value ~$110 · price $99.3 is 10% below it.
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock-38%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+0.3%
90-day change+0.5%
Forward EPS estimate$7.26

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect MZTI to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
20
Position size
$1,986
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$74.47
25% below $99.30
$ at risk if stopped
$496.50
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

The Marzetti Company (MZTI): score, valuation & FAQ

The Marzetti Company (MZTI) is a Packaged Foods company that scores 51.9 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A-) and P/E (A-), while PEG (D) rate weaker. On valuation, MZTI sits about 10% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 1% next year, rising to 4% a year by year ten.

Is MZTI a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores MZTI 51.9 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by D/E (A-) and P/E (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of The Marzetti Company's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does MZTI score 51.9 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on quality at 81.4 out of 100, with growth the weakest pillar at 34.9 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. MZTI earns its highest marks on D/E (A-) and P/E (A-), and is held back by PEG (D). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so MZTI is measured against Packaged Foods peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is MZTI overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $99.30, MZTI sits about 10% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 1% next year, rising to 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 14.2x P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in MZTI?

Down 44% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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