Match Group, Inc. — Internet Content & Information. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.
★
MTCH
Match Group, Inc. · Internet Content & Information
FCF$1.1bC+
Rev+1.7%C
D/E——
P/E14.5xB+
PEG0.36A
69.3Score
$40.87$9.5B
1Y Target$41.81Analyst consensus · 16 analysts
5Y Target$52.79Compound horizon
10Y Target$67.70Long-dated conviction
FCF$1.1bTTMC+
FCF $1.1b — respectable but not differentiating
Rev+1.7%TTM YoYC
Revenue +1.7% — flat, mature phase or headwinds present
D/E——
D/E data unavailable — neutral default
P/E14.5xB+
P/E 14.5 — below the Communication Services median (≈40th pctile)
PEG0.36A
PEG 0.36 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth
Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.
Quality-growth score · 69.3
Quality73.1
Growth54.5
Value83.7
Why this score
Buying back stock
Cut its dividend
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
1% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value49% belowest. fair value ~$80
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~-6% a year for the next decade — vs the ~18% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability65% · Agross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.
Why now
Match Group is a compelling buy due to its deeply undervalued cash flow generation, as our model's strongest pillar, Value (87), clearly indicates. Despite being classified as a growth company, the stock trades at a mere 13.2x P/E (TTM) and a 0.35 PEG ratio, while generating $1.1B in free cash flow (TTM). This suggests the market is pricing in significant pessimism, with our reverse DCF implying a sustained ~-8%/yr free-cash-flow decline for 10 years – a stark contrast to its current revenue growth and management's active share buybacks. The crux is that the market is overlooking the robust profitability and cash generation from its diverse portfolio of digital technologies like Tinder and Hinge.
Moat
Match Group's durable edge stems from its extensive and diversified portfolio of digital technologies, including market leaders like Tinder and Hinge, which benefit from powerful network effects. Each brand, such as Match, Meetic, and BLK, is tailored to specific user preferences, creating high switching costs as users invest time and social capital within their chosen communities. This segmentation and brand leadership make it difficult for new entrants to gain traction, allowing Match Group to sustain its strong user engagement and monetization across its global segments, including Match Group Asia.
Risk
The bear case for Match Group centers on its decelerating growth and questionable profitability, as evidenced by our model's weakest pillar, Growth (62). Despite its "growth" classification, the company reported a meager 1.7% revenue growth (FY YoY) and a negative -1.2% profit margin, suggesting that its extensive brand portfolio may be struggling to expand its user base or monetize effectively. Furthermore, our model signals that management recently cut its dividend, a clear caution for investors. A sustained decline in paid user growth across its core Tinder and Hinge segments would confirm the bear case, indicating a saturation of its end markets or increased competitive pressure.
Horizon
1-3 yr $41.81 (16-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $52.79 at ~5% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $67.70 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
MTCH vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
MTCH
Book avg
Diff
Quality
0.73
0.84
-0.11
Growth
0.54
0.84
-0.29
Value
0.84
0.78
+0.05
Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.
Score history · MTCH
Trend
-3.5 over 45 daily scores
From 72.8 (Jun 22) → 69.3 (now)
One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.
Analyst estimate revisions
30-day change
+13.2%
90-day change
+12.1%
Forward EPS estimate
$4.75
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect MTCH to earn is materially higher (+12.1%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →
Position sizing · MTCH
$
%
%
Shares to buy
48
Position size
$1,962
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$30.65
25% below $40.87
$ at risk if stopped
$490.44
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.
Match Group, Inc. (MTCH): score, valuation & FAQ
Match Group, Inc. (MTCH) is a Internet Content & Information company that scores 69.3 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are PEG (A) and P/E (B+). On valuation, MTCH sits about 49% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -6% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.
Is MTCH a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores MTCH 69.3 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by PEG (A) and P/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Match Group, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does MTCH score 69.3 on Bull Rankings?
The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). MTCH earns its highest marks on PEG (A) and P/E (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.
Is MTCH overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $40.87, MTCH sits about 49% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -6% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 14.5x P/E (graded B+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in MTCH?
The bear case for Match Group centers on its decelerating growth and questionable profitability, as evidenced by our model's weakest pillar, Growth (62). Despite its "growth" classification, the company reported a meager 1.7% revenue growth (FY YoY) and a negative -1.2% profit margin, suggesting that its extensive brand portfolio may be struggling to expand its user base or monetize effectively. Furthermore, our model signals that management recently cut its dividend, a clear caution for investors. A sustained decline in paid user growth across its core Tinder and Hinge segments would confirm the bear case, indicating a saturation of its end markets or increased competitive pressure.
Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.