COMPARE · Reviewed July 2, 2026
MTCH vs NFLX
Verdict: Side-by-side breakdown using the Bull Rankings model. MTCH scored 72.3, NFLX scored 78.8 — NFLX ahead by 6.5.
MTCH
Match Group, Inc.
72.3
$37.90
Score gap
6.5
NFLX leads
NFLX
Netflix, Inc.
78.8
$77.65
The companies
MTCHMatch Group, Inc.
Why now
Internet Content & Information · market cap $8.8b. 3% off the 52-week high of $39.20. PEG 0.35 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 16 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $41.13 (implying +9% upside).
Moat
ROE 19% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately.
Risk
Currently unprofitable (margin -1.2%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk.
NFLXNetflix, Inc.
Why now
Entertainment · market cap $327.0b. Down 40% from 52-week high of $130.23 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +16%, comfortably above the S&P median. 44 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $114.15 (implying +47% upside).
Moat
Net margin 29% sits well above the S&P median (~11%) — suggests structural pricing advantage or cost discipline competitors can't quickly close. ROE 43% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. $327.0b market cap places it among the largest companies in the sector — distribution, R&D, and customer-acquisition costs amortize across a base peers can't replicate.
Risk
Down 40% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Beta 1.49 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.
Base grades (each contributes ~14.3% of base composite)
| MTCH | Component | NFLX |
|---|---|---|
| C+70 | FCF | A-90 |
| C65 | Rev | B+85 |
| C65 | D/E | B80 |
| B+85 | P/E or P/S | B80 |
| A95 | PEG | B80 |
| Supplemental signals · feed the score, not on the row card | ||
| A95 | FCF Yield | B80 |
| B+85 | ROE | A95 |
| 81.3 | Base composite | 83.8 |
Adjustments (signed deltas applied on top of base)
MTCH
GARP sweet spot (PEG <1, positive FCF)+1
covered yield (2.1% at 29% payout)+1
insider cluster buying (net +20.6%, 34 txns)+2
forward P/E cheaper (14 → 9)+1
DCF cross-check (avg upside 55%)+1
Total+6
NFLX
analyst consensus bullish (74% buy/strong-buy)+2
insider net buying (net +3.5%)+1
DCF cross-check (avg upside -57%)-2
Total+1
DCF cross-check (per-share value vs. live price)
| MTCH upside | Horizon | NFLX upside |
|---|---|---|
| +43% | 1Y | -60% |
| +53% | 5Y | -58% |
| +68% | 10Y | -55% |
Verdict — model-derived comparison
Generating verdict… typically 5–10 seconds
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.