COMPARE · Reviewed July 2, 2026
MTCH vs TMUS
Verdict: Side-by-side breakdown using the Bull Rankings model. MTCH scored 72.3, TMUS scored 72.8 — TMUS ahead by 0.5.
MTCH
Match Group, Inc.
72.3
$37.90
Score gap
0.5
TMUS leads
TMUS
T-Mobile US, Inc.
72.8
$177.52
The companies
MTCHMatch Group, Inc.
Why now
Internet Content & Information · market cap $8.8b. 3% off the 52-week high of $39.20. PEG 0.35 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 16 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $41.13 (implying +9% upside).
Moat
ROE 19% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately.
Risk
Currently unprofitable (margin -1.2%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk.
TMUST-Mobile US, Inc.
Why now
Telecom Services · market cap $192.1b. Down 32% from 52-week high of $261.56 — deep drawdown territory. PEG 0.66 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 26 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $259.08 (implying +46% upside).
Moat
ROE 19% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. FCF converts 173% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined. $192.1b market cap gives the company enough scale to absorb fixed costs that subscale competitors can't, without yet being so large that growth has to come from acquisition.
Risk
D/E 2.19 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Down 32% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up.
Base grades (each contributes ~14.3% of base composite)
| MTCH | Component | TMUS |
|---|---|---|
| C+70 | FCF | A-90 |
| C65 | Rev | B80 |
| C65 | D/E | C65 |
| B+85 | P/E or P/S | B80 |
| A95 | PEG | A-90 |
| Supplemental signals · feed the score, not on the row card | ||
| A95 | FCF Yield | A-90 |
| B+85 | ROE | B+85 |
| 81.3 | Base composite | 83.3 |
Adjustments (signed deltas applied on top of base)
MTCH
GARP sweet spot (PEG <1, positive FCF)+1
covered yield (2.1% at 29% payout)+1
insider cluster buying (net +20.6%, 34 txns)+2
forward P/E cheaper (14 → 9)+1
DCF cross-check (avg upside 55%)+1
Total+6
TMUS
GARP sweet spot (PEG <1, positive FCF)+1
analyst consensus bullish (86% buy/strong-buy)+2
covered yield (2.4% at 40% payout)+1
forward P/E cheaper (19 → 13)+1
DCF cross-check (avg upside 137%)+2
Total+7
DCF cross-check (per-share value vs. live price)
| MTCH upside | Horizon | TMUS upside |
|---|---|---|
| +43% | 1Y | +68% |
| +53% | 5Y | +120% |
| +68% | 10Y | +224% |
Verdict — model-derived comparison
Generating verdict… typically 5–10 seconds
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.