Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

MSGE analysis

Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp.Entertainment. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

MSGE
Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. · Entertainment
FCF$313mC
Rev+12.5%B+
D/E
P/E57.9xC
PEG0.36A
72.0Score
$79.89$3.8B
1Y Target$91.63Analyst consensus · 8 analysts
5Y Target$134.15Compound horizon
10Y Target$199.00Long-dated conviction
FCF$313mTTM · 03/26
C
FCF $313m — modest; watch for margin expansion · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+12.5%TTM YoY
B+
Revenue +12.5% — above sector median, healthy trajectory
D/E
D/E data unavailable — neutral default
P/E57.9x
C
P/E 57.9 — expensive vs Communication Services peers (≈90th pctile)
PEG0.36est.
A
PEG 0.36 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth · PEG derived: P/E ÷ forward 1-year analyst EPS growth, because this name has no vendor-supplied PEG. Same earnings-growth basis as the reported figure on other rows.

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 72
Quality84.6
Growth79.0
Value59.5
Why this score
  • Short track record
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
12% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value66% belowest. fair value ~$238
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~-11% a year for the next decade — vs the ~25% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
ROIC18.1% · A-return on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
The single most compelling driver is the evergreen demand for marquee live experiences at MSG’s iconic venues – especially the Christmas Spectacular starring the Radio City Rockettes – which fuels a revenue growth of 12.5% YoY, a free‑cash‑flow generation of $313 m and a low PEG of 0.3, all while our Bull Rankings model flags a Quality score of 85, the strongest pillar, underscoring the business’s operational excellence. The thesis rests on the ability of these premium assets to keep compounding revenue and cash flow at double‑digit rates.
Moat
MSGE’s moat lies in its exclusive control of world‑renowned venues – Madison Square Garden, Radio City Music Hall, the Beacon and Chicago Theatres – and the proprietary Rockettes production, creating high switching costs for top‑tier performers and families who seek the cachet of these stages; no competitor can quickly replicate the venue‑brand synergy and the locked‑in calendar of legacy events.
Risk
The bear case centers on the sky‑high valuation: a trailing P/E of 61.5 implies investors are pricing in unsustainable free‑cash‑flow growth, yet the reverse‑DCF suggests a negative ‑9%/yr FCF trajectory over the next decade, a stark mismatch with the current 12.5% revenue growth and modest 6.2% profit margin. A slowdown in live‑event demand would force the price to collapse toward fundamentals, confirming the risk.
Horizon
1-3 yr $91.63 (8-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $134.15 at ~11% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $199.00 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

MSGE vs the Top Picks average

PillarMSGEBook avgDiff
Quality0.850.84in line
Growth0.790.84-0.05
Value0.600.78-0.19

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+31.7 over 47 daily scores
From 40.3 (Jun 22) → 72.0 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-14.8%
90-day change-15.0%
Forward EPS estimate$2.90

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect MSGE to earn is materially lower (-15.0%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A fiscal-year roll fell inside this window: the forward horizon moved on to the next financial year, which shifts the earnings figure without any analyst changing their view. That step is excluded, so the number above covers the rest of the window rather than all of it.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
25
Position size
$1,997
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$59.92
25% below $79.89
$ at risk if stopped
$499.31
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. (MSGE): score, valuation & FAQ

Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. (MSGE) is a Entertainment company that scores 72 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are PEG (A) and Rev (B+). On valuation, MSGE sits about 66% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -11% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is MSGE a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores MSGE 72 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by PEG (A) and Rev (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does MSGE score 72 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). MSGE earns its highest marks on PEG (A) and Rev (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is MSGE overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $79.89, MSGE sits about 66% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -11% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 57.9x P/E (graded C). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in MSGE?

The bear case centers on the sky‑high valuation: a trailing P/E of 61.5 implies investors are pricing in unsustainable free‑cash‑flow growth, yet the reverse‑DCF suggests a negative ‑9%/yr FCF trajectory over the next decade, a stark mismatch with the current 12.5% revenue growth and modest 6.2% profit margin. A slowdown in live‑event demand would force the price to collapse toward fundamentals, confirming the risk.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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