Broadcasting. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.
★
NXST
Nexstar Media Group, Inc. · Broadcasting
55.5Score
$161.45Oct 9 close$5.0B
1Y Target$246.75Analyst consensus · 8 analysts
5Y Target$361.27Compound horizon
10Y Target$535.91Long-dated conviction
FCF$743mTTM · 06/26C+
FCF $743m — respectable but not differentiating · TTM from SEC filings (OCF − CapEx), four quarters to 06/26.
Rev+10.5%TTM YoYB
Revenue +10.5% — at or above S&P median · Latest four quarters of revenue vs the four before them, from SEC filings.
D/E5.34D
D/E 5.34 — most levered decile in Communication Services (≈95th pctile)
P/E30.6xC+
P/E 30.6 — above the Communication Services median (≈75th pctile)
PEG0.27A
PEG 0.27 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth
Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology
Quality-growth score · 55.5
Quality56.4
Growth71.2
Value42.7
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
37% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value56% belowest. fair value ~$363
What the price assumes: free cash flow shrinking about 16% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~2% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Quality signals
ROIC6.0% · C+return on invested capital — leads the quality score
Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards
Why now
Broadcasting · market cap $5.0b. Down 37% from 52-week high of $254.30 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +11%, comfortably above the S&P median. PEG 0.27 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 8 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $246.75 (implying +53% upside).
Moat
Free cash flow runs well ahead of reported net income, mostly because of depreciation and amortization ($820m) — non-cash charges that hold down reported earnings while cash generation stays strong.
Risk
D/E 5.34 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Down 37% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Dividend payout 141% of earnings on a 4.6% yield — distribution coverage is thin; one earnings stumble could force a dividend cut.
Horizon
1-3 yr $246.75 (8-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $361.27 at ~17% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $535.91 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
NXST vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
NXST
Book avg
Diff
Quality
56
83
-27
Growth
71
89
-18
Value
43
76
-33
Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.
Score history · NXST
Trend
+14.4 over 82 daily scores
From 41.1 (Jun 22) → 55.5 (now)
One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.
NXST at a glance
Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.
Analyst estimate revisions
30-day change
+0.0%
90-day change
-3.7%
Forward EPS estimate
$23.30
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect NXST to earn is drifting lower (-3.7%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →
Position sizing · NXST
$
%
%
Shares to buy
12
Position size
$1,937
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$121.09
25% below $161.45
$ at risk if stopped
$484.35
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.
Nexstar Media Group, Inc. (NXST): score, valuation & FAQ
Nexstar Media Group, Inc. (NXST) is a Broadcasting company that scores 55.5 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are PEG (A), while D/E (D) rate weaker. On valuation, NXST sits about 56% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 16% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten.
Is NXST a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores NXST 55.5 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by PEG (A). A score is a quantitative screen of Nexstar Media Group, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does NXST score 55.5 on Bull Rankings?
The score leans on growth at 71.2 out of 100, with value the weakest pillar at 42.7 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. NXST earns its highest marks on PEG (A), and is held back by D/E (D). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so NXST is measured against Broadcasting peers, not against the market as a whole.
Is NXST overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $161.45, NXST sits about 56% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 16% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 30.6x P/E (graded C+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in NXST?
D/E 5.34 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Down 37% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Dividend payout 141% of earnings on a 4.6% yield — distribution coverage is thin; one earnings stumble could force a dividend cut.