Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

NXST analysis

Nexstar Media Group, Inc.Broadcasting. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

NXST
Nexstar Media Group, Inc. · Broadcasting
FCF$743mC+
Rev+10.5%B
D/E5.34D
P/E36.2xC+
PEG0.18A
58.8Score
$191.73$5.9B
1Y Target$248.43Analyst consensus · 7 analysts
5Y Target$363.72Compound horizon
10Y Target$539.56Long-dated conviction
FCF$743mTTM
C+
FCF $743m — respectable but not differentiating
Rev+10.5%TTM YoY
B
Revenue +10.5% — at or above S&P median
D/E5.34
D
D/E 5.34 — most levered decile in Communication Services (≈95th pctile)
P/E36.2x
C+
P/E 36.2 — above the Communication Services median (≈75th pctile)
PEG0.18
A
PEG 0.18 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 58.8
Quality0.55
Growth0.57
Value0.64
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
25% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value40% belowest. fair value ~$320
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~-13% a year for the next decade — vs the ~-5% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
ROIC6.0% · C+return on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Broadcasting · market cap $5.9b. Down 25% from 52-week high of $254.30 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +11%, comfortably above the S&P median. PEG 0.18 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 7 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $248.43 (implying +30% upside).
Moat
Free cash flow runs well ahead of reported net income — non-cash charges (depreciation, intangible amortization) are holding down GAAP earnings while cash generation stays strong.
Risk
D/E 5.34 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Trailing P/E 36x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates. Net margin 2.8% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.
Horizon
1-3 yr $248.43 (7-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $363.72 at ~14% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $539.56 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

NXST vs the Top Picks average

PillarNXSTBook avgDiff
Quality0.550.83-0.28
Growth0.570.91-0.34
Value0.640.76-0.12

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 82.8). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+17.7 over 38 daily scores
From 41.1 (Jun 22) → 58.8 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
10
Position size
$1,917
3.8% of portfolio
Stop price
$143.80
25% below $191.73
$ at risk if stopped
$479.32
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Nexstar Media Group, Inc. (NXST): score, valuation & FAQ

Nexstar Media Group, Inc. (NXST) is a Broadcasting company that scores 58.8 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are PEG (A), while D/E (D) rate weaker. On valuation, NXST sits about 40% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -13% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is NXST a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores NXST 58.8 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by PEG (A). A score is a quantitative screen of Nexstar Media Group, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does NXST score 58.8 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). NXST earns its highest marks on PEG (A), and is held back by D/E (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is NXST overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $191.73, NXST sits about 40% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -13% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 36.2x× P/E (graded C+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in NXST?

D/E 5.34 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Trailing P/E 36x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates. Net margin 2.8% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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