Bull Rankings model

John Wiley & Sons, Inc. (WLY) stock analysis

Publishing. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
WLY
John Wiley & Sons, Inc. · Publishing
54.3Score
$49.64Oct 9 close$2.5B
1Y Target$53.61Model estimate · no analyst coverage
5Y Target$67.68Compound horizon
10Y Target$86.80Long-dated conviction
FCF$240mTTM · 07/26
C
FCF $240m — modest; watch for margin expansion · TTM from SEC filings (OCF − CapEx), four quarters to 07/26.
Rev-0.3%TTM YoY
D+
Revenue -0.3% — shrinking; needs a catalyst to reverse · Latest four quarters of revenue vs the four before them, from SEC filings.
D/E1.73
C
D/E 1.73 — more levered than most Communication Services peers (≈90th pctile)
P/E13.4x
B+
P/E 13.4 — below the Communication Services median (≈40th pctile)
PEG13.05
D
PEG 13.05 — very expensive; pricing in best-case scenarios

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 54.3
Quality67.4
Growth36.1
Value66.0
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
14% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value37% belowest. fair value ~$79
What the price assumes: free cash flow shrinking about 9% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~-0% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Quality signals
Gross profitability40% · B+gross profit ÷ total assets — not in the score
ROIC9.4% · Breturn on invested capital — leads the quality score

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Publishing · market cap $2.5b. 14% off the 52-week high of $57.45.
Moat
ROE 25% is above 15% — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. FCF converts 121% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash.
Risk
Value re-rating depends on a catalyst. Without one — analyst day, divestiture, margin recovery, capital return — the stock can stay cheap on these multiples for years.
Horizon
1-3 yr $53.61 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $67.68 at ~6% CAGR — dividend compounding plus earnings growth. 10 yr $86.80 if the moat survives secular pressure.

WLY vs the Top Picks average

PillarWLYBook avgDiff
Quality6783-16
Growth3689-53
Value6676-10

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
+2.1 over 82 daily scores
From 52.2 (Jun 22) → 54.3 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

WLY at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD54.3/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY67.4GROWTH36.1VALUE66.0Reverse-DCF · Price implies roughly no growth from here.
PRICE vs OUR DCF FAIR VALUE$73.3$83.6FAIR-VALUE RANGE$49.6PRICEOur DCF fair value ~$79.2 · price $49.6 is 37% below it.
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock+36%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$49.6LOW $28.4HIGH $57.4Trading at the 73rd percentile of its 52-week range ($28.4–$57.4).

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+0.0%
90-day change+0.0%
Forward EPS estimate$5.30

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect WLY to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
40
Position size
$1,986
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$37.23
25% below $49.64
$ at risk if stopped
$496.40
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

John Wiley & Sons, Inc. (WLY): score, valuation & FAQ

John Wiley & Sons, Inc. (WLY) is a Publishing company that scores 54.3 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/E (B+), while Rev (D+) and PEG (D) rate weaker. On valuation, WLY sits about 37% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 9% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten.

Is WLY a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores WLY 54.3 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by P/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of John Wiley & Sons, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does WLY score 54.3 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on quality at 67.4 out of 100, with growth the weakest pillar at 36.1 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. WLY earns its highest marks on P/E (B+), and is held back by Rev (D+) and PEG (D). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so WLY is measured against Publishing peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is WLY overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $49.64, WLY sits about 37% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 9% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 13.4x P/E (graded B+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in WLY?

Value re-rating depends on a catalyst. Without one — analyst day, divestiture, margin recovery, capital return — the stock can stay cheap on these multiples for years.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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