Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

MNSO analysis

MINISO Group Holding LimitedSpecialty Retail. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

MNSO
MINISO Group Holding Limited · Specialty Retail
FCF
Rev+26.2%A-
D/E1.04B
P/E11.1xA-
PEG0.86B+
66.9Score
$11.02$3.3B
1Y Target$19.08Analyst consensus · 16 analysts
5Y Target$27.94Compound horizon
10Y Target$41.45Long-dated conviction
FCF
FCF not applicable for this sector (bank / insurer / REIT) or data unavailable
Rev+26.2%FY YoY
A-
Revenue +26.2% — strong growth, well above S&P median (~7%) · Computed from last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E1.04
B
D/E 1.04 — near the Consumer Cyclical debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/E11.1x
A-
P/E 11.1 — cheaper than most Consumer Cyclical peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG0.86est.
B+
PEG 0.86 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0) · PEG derived: P/E ÷ forward 1-year analyst EPS growth, because this name has no vendor-supplied PEG. Same earnings-growth basis as the reported figure on other rows.

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 66.9
Quality79.2
Growth95.7
Value71.5
Why this score
  • Short track record
  • Foreign reporter (CNY)
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
58% off the 12-month high

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
The single most compelling driver is MINISO’s fast‑moving TOP TOY blind‑box franchise, which fuels repeat footfall across its global store network. Revenue is surging at 26.2% YoY while the stock trades at a modest PE of 12 and a sub‑1.0 PEG of 0.46, indicating the market is undervaluing this growth engine. As long as the blind‑box pipeline continues to expand, the compounding revenue thrust will keep the valuation anchored well below its 52‑week high, delivering outsized upside.
Moat
MINISO’s moat lies in its exclusive TOP TOY blind‑box and collectible doll lines, which create a built‑in repeat‑purchase cycle and lock in a loyal, youth‑centric customer base that is hard for generic retailers to replicate. Coupled with a 18.8% ROE, this pricing power stems from category leadership in affordable, design‑led lifestyle toys that command premium margins despite low price points.
Risk
The biggest headwind is the company’s leverage; a debt‑to‑equity of 1.04 raises the risk that a slowdown in consumer spending could strain cash flows and force margin compression. The stock is already down near its 52‑week low of $11.12, suggesting the market is pricing in a potential earnings deceleration. A breach of the $11.12 support on weaker top‑line growth would validate the bear case and cap upside.
Horizon
1-3 yr $19.08 (16-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $27.94 at ~20% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $41.45 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

MNSO vs the Top Picks average

PillarMNSOBook avgDiff
Quality0.790.84-0.05
Growth0.960.84+0.12
Value0.710.78-0.07

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-5.1 over 47 daily scores
From 72.0 (Jun 22) → 66.9 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-0.8%
90-day change-2.4%
Forward EPS estimate$1.67

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect MNSO to earn is drifting lower (-2.4%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
181
Position size
$1,995
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$8.27
25% below $11.02
$ at risk if stopped
$498.65
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

MINISO Group Holding Limited (MNSO): score, valuation & FAQ

MINISO Group Holding Limited (MNSO) is a Specialty Retail company that scores 66.9 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A-), P/E (A-) and PEG (B+).

Is MNSO a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores MNSO 66.9 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by Rev (A-), P/E (A-) and PEG (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of MINISO Group Holding Limited's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does MNSO score 66.9 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). MNSO earns its highest marks on Rev (A-), P/E (A-) and PEG (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is MNSO overvalued or undervalued?

We don't compute a reliable discounted-cash-flow value for MNSO — typically because it is not yet consistently profitable or free-cash-flow positive — so its valuation rests on growth and price-to-sales rather than on earnings-based intrinsic value. Judge it on the trajectory of the business, not a single multiple.

What are the main risks of investing in MNSO?

The biggest headwind is the company’s leverage; a debt‑to‑equity of 1.04 raises the risk that a slowdown in consumer spending could strain cash flows and force margin compression. The stock is already down near its 52‑week low of $11.12, suggesting the market is pricing in a potential earnings deceleration. A breach of the $11.12 support on weaker top‑line growth would validate the bear case and cap upside.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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