Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

MLM analysis

Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.Building Materials. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Infrastructure & Reshoring
MLM
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. · Building Materials
FCF$810mC+
Rev+14.8%B+
D/E0.55C+
P/E34.8xC
PEG2.65C
41.8Score
$525.27$31.6B
1Y Target$662.65Analyst consensus · 23 analysts
5Y Target$970.19Compound horizon
10Y Target$1,439Long-dated conviction
FCF$810mTTM
C+
FCF $810m — respectable but not differentiating
Rev+14.8%TTM YoY
B+
Revenue +14.8% — above sector median, healthy trajectory
D/E0.55
C+
D/E 0.55 — above the Basic Materials debt median (≈75th pctile)
P/E34.8x
C
P/E 34.8 — expensive vs Basic Materials peers (≈90th pctile)
PEG2.65
C
PEG 2.65 — expensive relative to growth rate

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 41.8
Quality65.2
Growth50.0
Value22.5
Why this score
  • Raising its dividend
  • Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
26% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value112% aboveest. fair value ~$248
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~30% a year for the next decade — vs the ~17% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability9% · Cgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC6.4% · C+return on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
The East Group’s aggregate and ready‑mix concrete franchise is locked into a U.S. infrastructure pipeline, driving a 14.8% YoY revenue growth and a 36.7% profit margin that fuels a $810 m free‑cash‑flow run‑rate. Coupled with a dividend raise, the business compounds earnings at a rate that our model deems sustainable, making the current price a launchpad for the next growth wave.
Moat
MLM’s scale in crushed stone, sand and gravel creates high switching costs for contractors and utilities, while its dominant position in the East Group lets it command pricing power that translates into a 21.3% ROE. The integrated logistics network and long‑term supply contracts lock in volume, preventing rivals from quickly eroding margins.
Risk
A forward P/E of 34.2 signals that the market has priced in aggressive growth, yet the Bull Rankings model flags a weak Value pillar and cyclical exposure; a slowdown in infrastructure spending would compress margins and could see the stock retreat toward its 52‑week low of $522.19. The bear case materializes if revenue growth stalls below the 14.8% pace and the PE drifts higher, eroding the FCF cushion.
Horizon
1-3 yr $662.65 (23-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $970.19 at ~13% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $1,439 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

MLM vs the Top Picks average

PillarMLMBook avgDiff
Quality0.650.84-0.19
Growth0.500.84-0.34
Value0.220.78-0.56

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-0.8 over 47 daily scores
From 42.6 (Jun 22) → 41.8 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-6.4%
90-day change-6.3%
Forward EPS estimate$21.52

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect MLM to earn is materially lower (-6.3%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
3
Position size
$1,576
3.2% of portfolio
Stop price
$393.95
25% below $525.27
$ at risk if stopped
$393.95
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (MLM): score, valuation & FAQ

Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (MLM) is a Building Materials company that scores 41.8 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (B+). On valuation, MLM sits about 112% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 30% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is MLM a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores MLM 41.8 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. That is driven by Rev (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does MLM score 41.8 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). MLM earns its highest marks on Rev (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is MLM overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $525.27, MLM sits about 112% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 30% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 34.8x P/E (graded C). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in MLM?

A forward P/E of 34.2 signals that the market has priced in aggressive growth, yet the Bull Rankings model flags a weak Value pillar and cyclical exposure; a slowdown in infrastructure spending would compress margins and could see the stock retreat toward its 52‑week low of $522.19. The bear case materializes if revenue growth stalls below the 14.8% pace and the PE drifts higher, eroding the FCF cushion.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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