Building Materials. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.
★
KNF
Knife River Corporation · Building Materials
49.2Score
$49.84Oct 9 close$2.8B
1Y Target$78.75Analyst consensus · 8 analysts
5Y Target$115.30Compound horizon
10Y Target$171.04Long-dated conviction
FCF$43mTTM · 06/26C-
FCF $43m — barely positive; fragile cash position · TTM from SEC filings (OCF − CapEx), four quarters to 06/26.
Rev+12.1%TTM YoYB+
Revenue +12.1% — above sector median, healthy trajectory · Latest four quarters of revenue vs the four before them, from SEC filings.
D/E1.04C
D/E 1.04 — more levered than most Basic Materials peers (≈90th pctile)
P/E20.3xB
P/E 20.3 — near the Basic Materials median (≈60th pctile)
PEG1.62C+
PEG 1.62 — modest premium; above fair value
Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology
Quality-growth score · 49.2
Quality44.9
Growth50.0
Value52.9
Why this score
Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
48% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value170% aboveest. fair value ~$18
What the price assumes: free cash flow growing about 31% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~9% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Quality signals
Gross profitability14% · C+gross profit ÷ total assets — not in the score
ROIC6.7% · C+return on invested capital — leads the quality score
Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards
Why now
Building Materials · market cap $2.8b. Down 48% from 52-week high of $96.28 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +12%, comfortably above the S&P median. 8 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $78.75 (implying +58% upside).
Moat
Mining moat is reserve quality + extraction cost per unit — top-quartile cost producers generate cash through the commodity cycle while marginal producers burn it.
Risk
Down 48% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Net margin 4.2% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first. Hedge-book exposure — many commodity producers hedge forward production; if the hedge book is concentrated at prices well below spot, the upside the market expects is already locked away.
Horizon
1-3 yr $78.75 (8-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $115.30 at ~18% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $171.04 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
KNF vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
KNF
Book avg
Diff
Quality
45
83
-38
Growth
50
89
-39
Value
53
76
-23
Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.
Score history · KNF
Trend
+7.5 over 82 daily scores
From 41.7 (Jun 22) → 49.2 (now)
One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.
KNF at a glance
Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.
Analyst estimate revisions
30-day change
-18.4%
90-day change
-18.1%
Forward EPS estimate
$3.24
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect KNF to earn is materially lower (-18.1%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →
Position sizing · KNF
$
%
%
Shares to buy
40
Position size
$1,994
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$37.38
25% below $49.84
$ at risk if stopped
$498.40
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.
Knife River Corporation (KNF): score, valuation & FAQ
Knife River Corporation (KNF) is a Building Materials company that scores 49.2 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are Rev (B+), while FCF (C-) rate weaker. On valuation, KNF sits about 170% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 31% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten.
Is KNF a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores KNF 49.2 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. That is driven by Rev (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Knife River Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does KNF score 49.2 on Bull Rankings?
It grades evenly across the three pillars — quality 44.9, growth 50.0, value 52.9 out of 100 — so no single pillar is carrying the score. KNF earns its highest marks on Rev (B+), and is held back by FCF (C-). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so KNF is measured against Building Materials peers, not against the market as a whole.
Is KNF overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $49.84, KNF sits about 170% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 31% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 20.3x P/E (graded B). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in KNF?
Down 48% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Net margin 4.2% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first. Hedge-book exposure — many commodity producers hedge forward production; if the hedge book is concentrated at prices well below spot, the upside the market expects is already locked away.