Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

EXP analysis

Eagle Materials Inc.Building Materials. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

EXP
Eagle Materials Inc. · Building Materials
FCF$171mC
Rev+1.7%C
D/E1.21C
P/E16.3xB+
PEG2.09C
58.1Score
$207.03$6.4B
1Y Target$225.89Analyst consensus · 9 analysts
5Y Target$330.72Compound horizon
10Y Target$490.61Long-dated conviction
FCF$171mTTM
C
FCF $171m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev+1.7%TTM YoY
C
Revenue +1.7% — flat, mature phase or headwinds present
D/E1.21
C
D/E 1.21 — more levered than most Basic Materials peers (≈90th pctile)
P/E16.3x
B+
P/E 16.3 — below the Basic Materials median (≈40th pctile)
PEG2.09
C
PEG 2.09 — expensive relative to growth rate

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 58.1
Quality75.8
Growth48.7
Value53.2
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
  • Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
16% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value171% aboveest. fair value ~$76
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~35% a year for the next decade — vs the ~12% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability16% · C+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC17.5% · A-return on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Building Materials · market cap $6.4b. 16% off the 52-week high of $245.53. 9 sell-side analysts rate this a Hold with a mean 1-yr target of $225.89 (implying +9% upside).
Moat
Net margin 17% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 27% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. Mining moat is reserve quality + extraction cost per unit — top-quartile cost producers generate cash through the commodity cycle while marginal producers burn it.
Risk
Production-cost sensitivity — top-quartile cost producers generate cash through the cycle while marginal producers burn it; watch the cost-per-unit trend, not just headline revenue.
Horizon
1-3 yr $225.89 (9-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $330.72 at ~10% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $490.61 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

EXP vs the Top Picks average

PillarEXPBook avgDiff
Quality0.760.84-0.08
Growth0.490.84-0.35
Value0.530.78-0.25

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+0.6 over 47 daily scores
From 57.5 (Jun 22) → 58.1 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-2.1%
90-day change-2.8%
Forward EPS estimate$14.34

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect EXP to earn is drifting lower (-2.8%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
9
Position size
$1,863
3.7% of portfolio
Stop price
$155.27
25% below $207.03
$ at risk if stopped
$465.82
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Eagle Materials Inc. (EXP): score, valuation & FAQ

Eagle Materials Inc. (EXP) is a Building Materials company that scores 58.1 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/E (B+). On valuation, EXP sits about 171% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 35% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is EXP a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores EXP 58.1 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by P/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Eagle Materials Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does EXP score 58.1 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). EXP earns its highest marks on P/E (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is EXP overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $207.03, EXP sits about 171% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 35% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 16.3x P/E (graded B+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in EXP?

Production-cost sensitivity — top-quartile cost producers generate cash through the cycle while marginal producers burn it; watch the cost-per-unit trend, not just headline revenue.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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