Building Materials. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.
★
EXP
Eagle Materials Inc. · Building Materials
49.0Score
$164.70Oct 9 close$5.1B
1Y Target$201.50Analyst consensus · 10 analysts
5Y Target$254.39Compound horizon
10Y Target$326.25Long-dated conviction
FCF$171mTTM · 06/26C
FCF $171m — modest; watch for margin expansion · TTM from SEC filings (OCF − CapEx), four quarters to 06/26.
Rev+1.7%TTM YoYC
Revenue +1.7% — flat, mature phase or headwinds present · Latest four quarters of revenue vs the four before them, from SEC filings.
D/E1.21C
D/E 1.21 — more levered than most Basic Materials peers (≈90th pctile)
P/E13.0xB+
P/E 13.0 — below the Basic Materials median (≈40th pctile)
PEG2.09C
PEG 2.09 — expensive relative to growth rate
Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology
Quality-growth score · 49
Quality71.8
Growth36.8
Value44.5
Why this score
Buying back stock
Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
33% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value163% aboveest. fair value ~$63
What the price assumes: free cash flow growing about 28% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~2% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Quality signals
Gross profitability16% · C+gross profit ÷ total assets — not in the score
ROIC14.4% · B+return on invested capital — leads the quality score
Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards
Why now
Building Materials · market cap $5.1b. Down 33% from 52-week high of $245.53 — deep drawdown territory. 10 sell-side analysts rate this a Hold with a mean 1-yr target of $201.50 (implying +22% upside).
Moat
Net margin 17% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 27% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. Mining moat is reserve quality + extraction cost per unit — top-quartile cost producers generate cash through the commodity cycle while marginal producers burn it.
Risk
Down 33% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Production-cost sensitivity — top-quartile cost producers generate cash through the cycle while marginal producers burn it; watch the cost-per-unit trend, not just headline revenue.
Horizon
1-3 yr $201.50 (10-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $254.39 at ~9% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $326.25 if the moat survives secular pressure.
EXP vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
EXP
Book avg
Diff
Quality
72
83
-11
Growth
37
89
-52
Value
45
76
-31
Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.
Score history · EXP
Trend
-8.5 over 82 daily scores
From 57.5 (Jun 22) → 49.0 (now)
One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.
EXP at a glance
Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.
Analyst estimate revisions
30-day change
-4.4%
90-day change
-7.0%
Forward EPS estimate
$13.65
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect EXP to earn is materially lower (-7.0%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →
Position sizing · EXP
$
%
%
Shares to buy
12
Position size
$1,976
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$123.52
25% below $164.70
$ at risk if stopped
$494.10
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.
Eagle Materials Inc. (EXP): score, valuation & FAQ
Eagle Materials Inc. (EXP) is a Building Materials company that scores 49 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are P/E (B+). On valuation, EXP sits about 163% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 28% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten.
Is EXP a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores EXP 49 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. That is driven by P/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Eagle Materials Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does EXP score 49 on Bull Rankings?
The score leans on quality at 71.8 out of 100, with growth the weakest pillar at 36.8 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. EXP earns its highest marks on P/E (B+). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so EXP is measured against Building Materials peers, not against the market as a whole.
Is EXP overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $164.70, EXP sits about 163% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 28% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 13.0x P/E (graded B+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in EXP?
Down 33% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Production-cost sensitivity — top-quartile cost producers generate cash through the cycle while marginal producers burn it; watch the cost-per-unit trend, not just headline revenue.