D/E 0.58 — above the Basic Materials debt median (≈75th pctile)
P/E32.6xC
P/E 32.6 — expensive vs Basic Materials peers (≈90th pctile)
PEG2.38C
PEG 2.38 — expensive relative to growth rate
Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.
Quality-growth score · 52.2
Quality67.3
Growth50.0
Value42.2
Why this score
Raising its dividend
Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
17% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value65% aboveest. fair value ~$168
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~24% a year for the next decade — vs the ~18% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability13% · C+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC10.1% · Breturn on invested capital — not score-weighted
Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.
Why now
Vulcan Materials is the pure‑play beneficiary of America’s infrastructure spending, and the numbers prove it: 7.4% revenue growth in a cyclical end‑market, 13.8% profit margin that shows pricing power across aggregates, asphalt and concrete, and a $1.1B free‑cash‑flow engine that funds dividends and buybacks. Our Bull Rankings model gives VMC a Quality‑growth score of 52.2/100, with Quality at 67 (the strongest pillar) and Value at 42 (the weakest), anchoring the bull case on durable earnings and flagging the valuation as stretched. The crux is the reverse‑DCF implied 23% annual FCF growth versus the actual 7.4% revenue growth – the market is already pricing in heavy optimism that the infrastructure tailwind must sustain.
Moat
Vulcan’s moat is built on geological scarcity and logistics: crushed stone, sand, and gravel are heavy, low‑value‑per‑ton products where proximity to demand dictates pricing power, and Vulcan controls the highest‑quality deposits near major metropolitan areas. The company’s 13.2% ROE isn’t generic — it stems from category leadership in the Aggregates segment, where switching costs are high (permits, rail access, zoning) and competitors can’t replicate its extensive quarry network overnight. Asphalt and concrete segments ride this coattail, locking in municipal and commercial contracts with multi‑year supply agreements.
Risk
The bear case is straightforward: at a 31.9 P/E, the market is pricing in perfection, and our model’s Value pillar at 42/100 flags that the premium isn’t justified by the PEG ratio of 2.38. Debt‑to‑equity of 0.58 adds leverage risk if a construction slowdown hits, and a beta of 1.06 means the stock will track any broader cyclical dip. The signal to sell is a sustained break below the 200‑day moving average (around $255), confirming a cyclical peak and forcing a re‑rating.
Horizon
1-3 yr $325.55 (22-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $476.63 at ~12% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $707.05 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
VMC vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
VMC
Book avg
Diff
Quality
0.67
0.84
-0.17
Growth
0.50
0.84
-0.34
Value
0.42
0.78
-0.36
Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.
Score history · VMC
Trend
+3.3 over 47 daily scores
From 48.9 (Jun 22) → 52.2 (now)
One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.
Analyst estimate revisions
30-day change
+0.2%
90-day change
-0.3%
Forward EPS estimate
$10.79
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect VMC to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →
Position sizing · VMC
$
%
%
Shares to buy
7
Position size
$1,932
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$207.03
25% below $276.04
$ at risk if stopped
$483.07
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.
Vulcan Materials Company (VMC): score, valuation & FAQ
Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) is a Building Materials company that scores 52.2 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
On valuation, VMC sits about 65% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 24% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.
Is VMC a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores VMC 52.2 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. A score is a quantitative screen of Vulcan Materials Company's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does VMC score 52.2 on Bull Rankings?
The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). VMC grades middle-of-pack across the strip. Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.
Is VMC overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $276.04, VMC sits about 65% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 24% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 32.6x P/E (graded C). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in VMC?
The bear case is straightforward: at a 31.9 P/E, the market is pricing in perfection, and our model’s Value pillar at 42/100 flags that the premium isn’t justified by the PEG ratio of 2.38. Debt‑to‑equity of 0.58 adds leverage risk if a construction slowdown hits, and a beta of 1.06 means the stock will track any broader cyclical dip. The signal to sell is a sustained break below the 200‑day moving average (around $255), confirming a cyclical peak and forcing a re‑rating.
Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.