Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

MKC analysis

McCormick & Company, IncorporatedPackaged Foods. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

MKC
McCormick & Company, Incorporated · Packaged Foods
FCF$970mC+
Rev+9.5%B
D/E0.65B+
P/E9.2xA
PEG2.19C
57.1Score
$55.41$14.9B
1Y Target$60.62Analyst consensus · 13 analysts
5Y Target$76.53Compound horizon
10Y Target$98.14Long-dated conviction
FCF$970mTTM
C+
FCF $970m — respectable but not differentiating
Rev+9.5%TTM YoY
B
Revenue +9.5% — at or above S&P median
D/E0.65
B+
D/E 0.65 — below the Consumer Defensive debt median (≈40th pctile)
P/E9.2x
A
P/E 9.2 — cheapest decile in Consumer Defensive (≈10th pctile)
PEG2.19
C
PEG 2.19 — expensive relative to growth rate

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 57.1
Quality73.6
Growth43.4
Value58.4
Why this score
  • Raising its dividend
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
23% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value32% belowest. fair value ~$82
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~-4% a year for the next decade — vs the ~7% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability17% · C+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC7.3% · C+return on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Packaged Foods · market cap $14.9b. Down 23% from 52-week high of $72.41 — deep drawdown territory. 13 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $60.62 (implying +9% upside).
Moat
Net margin 22% sits well above the S&P median (~11%) — suggests structural pricing advantage or cost discipline competitors can't quickly close. ROE 23% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately.
Risk
Value re-rating depends on a catalyst. Without one — analyst day, divestiture, margin recovery, capital return — the stock can stay cheap on these multiples for years.
Horizon
1-3 yr $60.62 (13-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $76.53 at ~7% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $98.14 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

MKC vs the Top Picks average

PillarMKCBook avgDiff
Quality0.740.84-0.10
Growth0.430.84-0.41
Value0.580.78-0.20

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+8.5 over 47 daily scores
From 48.6 (Jun 22) → 57.1 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-0.0%
90-day change-1.5%
Forward EPS estimate$3.30

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect MKC to earn is drifting lower (-1.5%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
36
Position size
$1,995
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$41.56
25% below $55.41
$ at risk if stopped
$498.69
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC): score, valuation & FAQ

McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC) is a Packaged Foods company that scores 57.1 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A) and D/E (B+). On valuation, MKC sits about 32% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -4% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is MKC a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores MKC 57.1 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by P/E (A) and D/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of McCormick & Company, Incorporated's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does MKC score 57.1 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). MKC earns its highest marks on P/E (A) and D/E (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is MKC overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $55.41, MKC sits about 32% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -4% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 9.2x P/E (graded A). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in MKC?

Value re-rating depends on a catalyst. Without one — analyst day, divestiture, margin recovery, capital return — the stock can stay cheap on these multiples for years.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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