Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

MGM analysis

MGM Resorts InternationalResorts & Casinos. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Sports Betting & Gaming
MGM
MGM Resorts International · Resorts & Casinos
FCF$1.5bC+
Rev+3.2%C+
D/E8.93D
P/E26.5xC+
PEG0.61A-
58.0Score
$43.69$11.2B
1Y Target$50.63Analyst consensus · 18 analysts
5Y Target$63.92Compound horizon
10Y Target$81.97Long-dated conviction
FCF$1.5bTTM
C+
FCF $1.5b — respectable but not differentiating
Rev+3.2%TTM YoY
C+
Revenue +3.2% — steady but below market-beating range
D/E8.93
D
D/E 8.93 — most levered decile in Consumer Cyclical (≈95th pctile)
P/E26.5x
C+
P/E 26.5 — above the Consumer Cyclical median (≈75th pctile)
PEG0.61
A-
PEG 0.61 — strong; Lynch's preferred zone

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 58
Quality60.4
Growth50.0
Value64.8
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
  • Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
15% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value47% belowest. fair value ~$82
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~-9% a year for the next decade — vs the ~10% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
ROIC8.7% · Breturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Resorts & Casinos · market cap $11.2b. 15% off the 52-week high of $51.59. PEG 0.61 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 18 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $50.63 (implying +16% upside).
Moat
ROE 17% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. Free cash flow runs well ahead of reported net income — non-cash charges (depreciation, intangible amortization) are holding down GAAP earnings while cash generation stays strong.
Risk
D/E 8.93 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Net margin 2.4% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.
Horizon
1-3 yr $50.63 (18-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $63.92 at ~8% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $81.97 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

MGM vs the Top Picks average

PillarMGMBook avgDiff
Quality0.600.84-0.23
Growth0.500.87-0.37
Value0.650.76-0.11

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+10.2 over 46 daily scores
From 47.8 (Jun 22) → 58.0 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-6.3%
90-day change-7.5%
Forward EPS estimate$2.07

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect MGM to earn is materially lower (-7.5%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
45
Position size
$1,966
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$32.77
25% below $43.69
$ at risk if stopped
$491.51
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

MGM Resorts International (MGM): score, valuation & FAQ

MGM Resorts International (MGM) is a Resorts & Casinos company that scores 58 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are PEG (A-), while D/E (D) rate weaker. On valuation, MGM sits about 47% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -9% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is MGM a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores MGM 58 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by PEG (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of MGM Resorts International's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does MGM score 58 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). MGM earns its highest marks on PEG (A-), and is held back by D/E (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is MGM overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $43.69, MGM sits about 47% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -9% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 26.5x P/E (graded C+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in MGM?

D/E 8.93 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Net margin 2.4% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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