Bull Rankings model

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) stock analysis

Aluminum. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
KALU
Kaiser Aluminum Corporation · Aluminum
58.6Score
$151.51Oct 9 close$2.5B
1Y Target$168.25Analyst consensus · 4 analysts
5Y Target$212.41Compound horizon
10Y Target$272.41Long-dated conviction
FCF$87mTTM · 06/26
C-
FCF $87m — barely positive; fragile cash position · Trailing twelve months to 06/26 (operating cash flow − capex).
Rev+11.5%FY YoY
B
Revenue +11.5% — at or above S&P median · Computed from the last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E1.13
C
D/E 1.13 — more levered than most Basic Materials peers (≈90th pctile)
P/E11.2x
A-
P/E 11.2 — cheaper than most Basic Materials peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG1.17
B+
PEG 1.17 — near fair value (1.0 is the usual benchmark)

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 58.6
Quality61.6
Growth50.0
Value65.3
Why this score
  • Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
24% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value137% aboveest. fair value ~$64
What the price assumes: free cash flow growing about 32% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~12% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Aluminum · market cap $2.5b. Down 24% from 52-week high of $199.89 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +12%, comfortably above the S&P median. 4 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $168.25 (implying +11% upside).
Moat
ROE 26% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which.
Risk
Beta 1.58 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.
Horizon
1-3 yr $168.25 (4-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $212.41 at ~7% CAGR — dividend compounding plus earnings growth. 10 yr $272.41 if the moat survives secular pressure.

KALU vs the Top Picks average

PillarKALUBook avgDiff
Quality6283-21
Growth5089-39
Value6576-11

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
+4.4 over 82 daily scores
From 54.2 (Jun 22) → 58.6 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

KALU at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD58.6/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY61.6GROWTH50.0VALUE65.3Reverse-DCF · Price implies ~32% growth a year from here.
PRICE vs OUR DCF FAIR VALUE$58.2$72.8FAIR-VALUE RANGE$152PRICEOur DCF fair value ~$64.1 · price $152 is 137% above it.
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock+95%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$152LOW $76.5HIGH $200Trading at the 61st percentile of its 52-week range ($76.5–$200).

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+0.0%
90-day change+9.7%
Forward EPS estimate$11.59

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect KALU to earn is materially higher (+9.7%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
13
Position size
$1,970
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$113.63
25% below $151.51
$ at risk if stopped
$492.41
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU): score, valuation & FAQ

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) is an Aluminum company that scores 58.6 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A-) and PEG (B+), while FCF (C-) rate weaker. On valuation, KALU sits about 137% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 32% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten.

Is KALU a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores KALU 58.6 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by P/E (A-) and PEG (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Kaiser Aluminum Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does KALU score 58.6 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on value at 65.3 out of 100, with growth the weakest pillar at 50.0 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. KALU earns its highest marks on P/E (A-) and PEG (B+), and is held back by FCF (C-). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so KALU is measured against Aluminum peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is KALU overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $151.51, KALU sits about 137% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 32% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten. It trades at an 11.2x P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in KALU?

Beta 1.58 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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