Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

KALU analysis

Kaiser Aluminum CorporationAluminum. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

KALU
Kaiser Aluminum Corporation · Aluminum
FCF$87mC-
Rev+32.8%A
D/E1.13C
P/E11.4xA-
PEG1.17B+
61.6Score
$154.16$2.5B
1Y Target$169.25Analyst consensus · 4 analysts
5Y Target$247.80Compound horizon
10Y Target$367.59Long-dated conviction
FCF$87mTTM
C-
FCF $87m — barely positive; fragile cash position
Rev+32.8%TTM YoY
A
Revenue +32.8% — hypergrowth, top decile
D/E1.13
C
D/E 1.13 — more levered than most Basic Materials peers (≈90th pctile)
P/E11.4x
A-
P/E 11.4 — cheaper than most Basic Materials peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG1.17
B+
PEG 1.17 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0)

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 61.6
Quality61.1
Growth50.0
Value76.5
Why this score
  • Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
23% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value248% aboveest. fair value ~$44
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~32% a year for the next decade — vs the ~-5% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability21% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC13.6% · B+return on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Aluminum · market cap $2.5b. Down 23% from 52-week high of $199.89 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +33% — in hypergrowth territory. 4 sell-side analysts publish a mean 1-yr target of $169.25 (implying +10% upside).
Moat
ROE 24% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately.
Risk
Beta 1.60 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.
Horizon
1-3 yr $169.25 (4-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $247.80 at ~10% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $367.59 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

KALU vs the Top Picks average

PillarKALUBook avgDiff
Quality0.610.84-0.23
Growth0.500.84-0.34
Value0.760.78in line

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+7.4 over 47 daily scores
From 54.2 (Jun 22) → 61.6 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+7.0%
90-day change+3.9%
Forward EPS estimate$11.29

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect KALU to earn is drifting higher (+3.9%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
12
Position size
$1,850
3.7% of portfolio
Stop price
$115.62
25% below $154.16
$ at risk if stopped
$462.48
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU): score, valuation & FAQ

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) is a Aluminum company that scores 61.6 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A), P/E (A-) and PEG (B+), while FCF (C-) rate weaker. On valuation, KALU sits about 248% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 32% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is KALU a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores KALU 61.6 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by Rev (A), P/E (A-) and PEG (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Kaiser Aluminum Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does KALU score 61.6 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). KALU earns its highest marks on Rev (A), P/E (A-) and PEG (B+), and is held back by FCF (C-). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is KALU overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $154.16, KALU sits about 248% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 32% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 11.4x P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in KALU?

Beta 1.60 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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