Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

JD analysis

JD.com, Inc.Internet Retail. Scored on the same transparent 7-signal model behind the daily rankings.

JD
JD.com, Inc. · Internet Retail
FCF$3.5bB
Rev+13.0%B+
D/E0.38A-
P/E20.2xB
PEG0.69A-
56.7Score
$27.74$37.5B
1Y Target$39.85Analyst consensus · 35 analysts
5Y Target$50.31Compound horizon
10Y Target$64.52Long-dated conviction
FCF$3.5bTTM · 03/26
B
FCF $3.5b — solid, comfortably covers operations and capital return · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+13.0%TTM YoY
B+
Revenue +13.0% — above sector median, healthy trajectory
D/E0.38
A-
D/E 0.38 — less debt than most Consumer Cyclical peers (≈25th pctile)
P/E20.2x
B
P/E 20.2 — near the Consumer Cyclical median (≈60th pctile)
PEG0.69
A-
PEG 0.69 — strong; Lynch's preferred zone

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 56.7
Quality0.51
Growth0.81
Value0.80
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
  • Foreign reporter (CNY)
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
25% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value54% belowest. fair value ~$60
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability30% · B+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC0.9% · Creturn on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Internet Retail · market cap $37.5b. Down 25% from 52-week high of $36.86 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +13%, comfortably above the S&P median. PEG 0.69 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 35 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $39.85 (implying +44% upside).
Moat
ROE 10% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere. FCF converts 171% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Net margin 1.8% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first. E-commerce competition — Amazon, Walmart, Shein, and Temu have each forced the rest of the category to compete on price, fulfillment speed, or assortment; sustaining margins requires one of those being structurally defended.
Horizon
1-3 yr $39.85 (35-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $50.31 at ~13% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $64.52 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Shares to buy
72
Position size
$1,997
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$20.80
25% below $27.74
$ at risk if stopped
$499.32
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

JD.com, Inc. (JD): score, valuation & FAQ

JD.com, Inc. (JD) is a Internet Retail company that scores 56.7 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A-), PEG (A-) and Rev (B+). On valuation, JD sits about 54% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety).

Is JD a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores JD 56.7 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by D/E (A-), PEG (A-) and Rev (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of JD.com, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does JD score 56.7 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). JD earns its highest marks on D/E (A-), PEG (A-) and Rev (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is JD overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $27.74, JD sits about 54% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety). It trades at a 20.2x× P/E (graded B). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in JD?

Net margin 1.8% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first. E-commerce competition — Amazon, Walmart, Shein, and Temu have each forced the rest of the category to compete on price, fulfillment speed, or assortment; sustaining margins requires one of those being structurally defended.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

More Consumer Cyclical stocks by score

All Consumer Cyclical rankings →

Analyze another ticker →