Johnson Controls International plc (JCI) stock analysis
Building Products & Equipment. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.
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JCI
Johnson Controls International plc · Building Products & Equipment
29.7Score
$157.44Oct 9 close$95.4B
1Y Target$166.90Analyst consensus · 20 analysts
5Y Target$244.36Compound horizon
10Y Target$362.49Long-dated conviction
FCF$1.7bTTM · 06/26C+
FCF $1.7b — respectable but not differentiating · Trailing twelve months to 06/26 (operating cash flow − capex).
Rev+2.8%FY YoYC
Revenue +2.8% — flat, mature phase or headwinds present · Computed from the last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E0.70B
D/E 0.70 — near the Industrials debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/E44.5xC
P/E 44.5 — expensive vs Industrials peers (≈90th pctile)
PEG1.76C+
PEG 1.76 — modest premium; above fair value
Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology
Quality-growth score · 29.7
Quality65.3
Growth56.2
Value7.2
Why this score
Buying back stock
Raising its dividend
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
2% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value383% aboveest. fair value ~$33
What the price assumes: free cash flow growing about 46% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~3% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards
Why now
Building Products & Equipment · market cap $95.4b. Trading near 52-week high of $160.41 — momentum setup, limited technical margin of safety. 20 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $166.90 (implying +6% upside).
Moat
Net margin 14% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 14% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere. $95.4b market cap gives the company enough scale to absorb fixed costs that subscale competitors can't, without yet being so large that growth has to come from acquisition.
Risk
Trading within 2% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Trailing P/E 44x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates.
Horizon
1-3 yr $166.90 (20-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $244.36 at ~9% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $362.49 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
JCI vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
JCI
Book avg
Diff
Quality
65
83
-18
Growth
56
89
-33
Value
7
76
-69
Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.
Score history · JCI
Trend
-14.0 over 80 daily scores
From 43.7 (Jun 22) → 29.7 (now)
One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.
JCI at a glance
Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.
Analyst estimate revisions
30-day change
+0.9%
90-day change
+6.1%
Forward EPS estimate
$6.10
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect JCI to earn is materially higher (+6.1%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →
Position sizing · JCI
$
%
%
Shares to buy
12
Position size
$1,889
3.8% of portfolio
Stop price
$118.08
25% below $157.44
$ at risk if stopped
$472.32
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.
Johnson Controls International plc (JCI): score, valuation & FAQ
Johnson Controls International plc (JCI) is a Building Products & Equipment company that scores 29.7 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a weak reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
On valuation, JCI sits about 383% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 46% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten.
Is JCI a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores JCI 29.7 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a weak reading. A score is a quantitative screen of Johnson Controls International plc's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does JCI score 29.7 on Bull Rankings?
The score leans on quality at 65.3 out of 100, with value the weakest pillar at 7.2 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. JCI grades middle-of-pack across the graded signals. Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so JCI is measured against Building Products & Equipment peers, not against the market as a whole.
Is JCI overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $157.44, JCI sits about 383% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 46% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 44.5x P/E (graded C). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in JCI?
Trading within 2% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Trailing P/E 44x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates.