Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

STRL analysis

Sterling Infrastructure, Inc.Engineering & Construction. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Infrastructure & Reshoring
STRL
Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. · Engineering & Construction
FCF$482mC
Rev+60.8%A
D/E0.24A-
P/E37.2xC+
PEG0.95B+
71.1Score
$516.81$15.8B
1Y Target$905.33Analyst consensus · 6 analysts
5Y Target$1,325Compound horizon
10Y Target$1,966Long-dated conviction
FCF$482mTTM
C
FCF $482m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev+60.8%TTM YoY
A
Revenue +60.8% — hypergrowth, top decile
D/E0.24
A-
D/E 0.24 — less debt than most Industrials peers (≈25th pctile)
P/E37.2x
C+
P/E 37.2 — above the Industrials median (≈75th pctile)
PEG0.95
B+
PEG 0.95 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0)

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 71.1
Quality84.1
Growth96.0
Value44.6
Why this score
  • Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
49% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value141% aboveest. fair value ~$214
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~41% a year for the next decade — vs the ~25% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability26% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC29.0% · Areturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
The bull case hinges on STRL’s dominant E‑Infrastructure Solutions franchise, which is winning the massive e‑commerce distribution‑center build‑out wave. Management is converting that wave into 60.8% FY revenue growth, $482 m of free cash flow and a rock‑solid 31.8% ROE—all while the Bull Rankings model flags a Growth pillar of 97, the strongest of its three pillars, delivering a Quality‑Growth score of 72.1. The thesis rests on the compounding power of this high‑margin, high‑growth segment outpacing the market for years to come.
Moat
STRL’s moat lives in its deep relationships with blue‑chip e‑commerce and data‑center customers, who lock in multi‑year site‑development contracts that are costly to re‑source. The E‑Infrastructure segment’s specialized engineering expertise and permitting know‑how generate pricing power, evident in the 31.8% ROE, and create a switching cost that rivals cannot quickly replicate.
Risk
The bear case centers on the lofty valuation: a forward P/E of 39.5 implies the market is pricing in near‑term growth far above the historical norm, and the model’s reverse‑DCF demands a sustained 41% annual FCF growth—far beyond the 60.8% revenue surge and likely unsustainable. A slowdown in e‑commerce capex or a spike in construction costs would crush margins, and a breach of the 0.24 debt‑to‑equity ceiling would trigger a sell‑off. Confirmation would be a quarterly earnings miss that pushes the P/E above 45.
Horizon
1-3 yr $905.33 (6-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $1,325 at ~21% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $1,966 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

STRL vs the Top Picks average

PillarSTRLBook avgDiff
Quality0.840.84in line
Growth0.960.84+0.12
Value0.450.78-0.34

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+9.6 over 47 daily scores
From 61.5 (Jun 22) → 71.1 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+0.1%
90-day change-5.5%
Forward EPS estimate$25.28

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect STRL to earn is materially lower (-5.5%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A fiscal-year roll fell inside this window: the forward horizon moved on to the next financial year, which shifts the earnings figure without any analyst changing their view. That step is excluded, so the number above covers the rest of the window rather than all of it.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
3
Position size
$1,550
3.1% of portfolio
Stop price
$387.61
25% below $516.81
$ at risk if stopped
$387.61
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. (STRL): score, valuation & FAQ

Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. (STRL) is a Engineering & Construction company that scores 71.1 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A), D/E (A-) and PEG (B+). On valuation, STRL sits about 141% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 41% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is STRL a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores STRL 71.1 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by Rev (A), D/E (A-) and PEG (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Sterling Infrastructure, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does STRL score 71.1 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). STRL earns its highest marks on Rev (A), D/E (A-) and PEG (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is STRL overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $516.81, STRL sits about 141% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 41% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 37.2x P/E (graded C+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in STRL?

The bear case centers on the lofty valuation: a forward P/E of 39.5 implies the market is pricing in near‑term growth far above the historical norm, and the model’s reverse‑DCF demands a sustained 41% annual FCF growth—far beyond the 60.8% revenue surge and likely unsustainable. A slowdown in e‑commerce capex or a spike in construction costs would crush margins, and a breach of the 0.24 debt‑to‑equity ceiling would trigger a sell‑off. Confirmation would be a quarterly earnings miss that pushes the P/E above 45.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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