Bull Rankings model

Herc Holdings Inc. (HRI) stock analysis

Rental & Leasing Services. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
HRI
Herc Holdings Inc. · Rental & Leasing Services
48.2Score
$123.46Oct 9 close$4.1B
1Y Target$188.25Analyst consensus · 12 analysts
5Y Target$329.25Compound horizon
10Y Target$588.43Long-dated conviction
FCF-$128mTTM · 06/26
F
FCF is negative (-$128m) — cash-burning phase; acceptable only for pre-profit spec names · Trailing twelve months to 06/26 (operating cash flow − capex).
Rev+28.3%FY YoY
A-
Revenue +28.3% — strong growth, well above S&P median (~7%) · Computed from the last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E5.06
D
D/E 5.06 — most levered decile in Industrials (≈95th pctile)
P/S*0.8x
A-
P/S 0.8x — cheaper than most Industrials peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG0.04
A
PEG 0.04 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth

* P/S replaces P/E — no positive earnings to divide by

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 48.2
Quality41.9
Growth91.0
Value29.5
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
34% off the 12-month high

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Rental & Leasing Services · market cap $4.1b. Down 34% from 52-week high of $188.35 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +28% — in hypergrowth territory. PEG 0.04 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 12 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $188.25 (implying +52% upside).
Moat
Higher-variance name — the moat signals on the quantitative card are modest, so the durability case rests on execution (turning current growth into durable earnings power) or an un-monetized asset (IP / network effects / first-mover position) rather than an entrenched competitive position.
Risk
D/E 5.06 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Free cash flow is negative (-$128m) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Trailing P/E 80.7x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating.
Horizon
1-3 yr $188.25 (12-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $329.25 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $588.43 — return distribution heavily skewed.

HRI vs the Top Picks average

PillarHRIBook avgDiff
Quality4283-41
Growth9189+2
Value2976-47

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
-8.7 over 80 daily scores
From 56.9 (Jun 22) → 48.2 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

HRI at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD48.2/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY41.9GROWTH91.0VALUE29.5
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$123LOW $88.5HIGH $188Trading at the 35th percentile of its 52-week range ($88.5–$188).
WHERE THIS SCORE SITS0255075100HRI 48.2Ranks above 48% of 1,709 companies on the quality-growth score.
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock+5%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+7.7%
90-day change+11.1%
Forward EPS estimate$10.93

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect HRI to earn is materially higher (+11.1%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
16
Position size
$1,975
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$92.59
25% below $123.46
$ at risk if stopped
$493.84
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

Herc Holdings Inc. (HRI): score, valuation & FAQ

Herc Holdings Inc. (HRI) is a Rental & Leasing Services company that scores 48.2 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are PEG (A), Rev (A-) and P/S (A-), while D/E (D) and FCF (F) rate weaker.

Is HRI a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores HRI 48.2 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. That is driven by PEG (A), Rev (A-) and P/S (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Herc Holdings Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does HRI score 48.2 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on growth at 91.0 out of 100, with value the weakest pillar at 29.5 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. HRI earns its highest marks on PEG (A), Rev (A-) and P/S (A-), and is held back by D/E (D) and FCF (F). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so HRI is measured against Rental & Leasing Services peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is HRI overvalued or undervalued?

We don't compute a reliable discounted-cash-flow value for HRI — typically because it is not yet consistently profitable or free-cash-flow positive — so its valuation rests on growth and price-to-sales rather than on earnings-based intrinsic value. Judge it on the trajectory of the business, not a single multiple.

What are the main risks of investing in HRI?

D/E 5.06 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Free cash flow is negative (-$128m) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Trailing P/E 80.7x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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