Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

HRI analysis

Herc Holdings Inc.Rental & Leasing Services. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

HRI
Herc Holdings Inc. · Rental & Leasing Services
FCF-$128mF
Rev+34.3%A
D/E5.06D
P/S6.2xC
PEG0.06A
57.8Score
$170.80$5.7B
1Y Target$179.75Analyst consensus · 12 analysts
5Y Target$314.38Compound horizon
10Y Target$561.86Long-dated conviction
FCF-$128mTTM
F
FCF is negative (-$128m) — cash-burning phase; acceptable only for pre-profit spec names
Rev+34.3%TTM YoY
A
Revenue +34.3% — hypergrowth, top decile
D/E5.06
D
D/E 5.06 — most levered decile in Industrials (≈95th pctile)
P/S6.2x
C
P/S 6.2x — expensive vs Industrials peers (≈90th pctile)
PEG0.06
A
PEG 0.06 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 57.8
Quality0.38
Growth0.98
Value0.52
Why this score
  • Short track record
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
9% off the 12-month high
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability6% · Cgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
Why now
Rental & Leasing Services · market cap $5.7b. 9% off the 52-week high of $188.35. Revenue growing +34% — in hypergrowth territory. PEG 0.06 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 12 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $179.75 (implying +5% upside).
Moat
Higher-variance name — the moat signals on the quantitative card are modest, so the durability case rests on execution (turning current growth into durable earnings power) or an un-monetized asset (IP / network effects / first-mover position) rather than an entrenched competitive position.
Risk
D/E 5.06 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Free cash flow is negative (-$128m) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Trailing P/E 100.5x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating.
Horizon
1-3 yr $179.75 (12-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $314.38 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $561.86 — return distribution heavily skewed.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

HRI vs the Top Picks average

PillarHRIBook avgDiff
Quality0.380.83-0.45
Growth0.980.91+0.07
Value0.520.75-0.22

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.8). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+0.9 over 33 daily scores
From 56.9 (Jun 22) → 57.8 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
11
Position size
$1,879
3.8% of portfolio
Stop price
$128.10
25% below $170.80
$ at risk if stopped
$469.70
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Herc Holdings Inc. (HRI): score, valuation & FAQ

Herc Holdings Inc. (HRI) is a Rental & Leasing Services company that scores 57.8 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A) and PEG (A), while D/E (D) and FCF (F) rate weaker.

Is HRI a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores HRI 57.8 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by Rev (A) and PEG (A). A score is a quantitative screen of Herc Holdings Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does HRI score 57.8 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). HRI earns its highest marks on Rev (A) and PEG (A), and is held back by D/E (D) and FCF (F). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is HRI overvalued or undervalued?

We don't compute a reliable discounted-cash-flow value for HRI — typically because it is not yet consistently profitable or free-cash-flow positive — so its valuation rests on growth and price-to-sales rather than on earnings-based intrinsic value. Judge it on the trajectory of the business, not a single multiple.

What are the main risks of investing in HRI?

D/E 5.06 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Free cash flow is negative (-$128m) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Trailing P/E 100.5x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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