AerCap Holdings N.V. — Rental & Leasing Services. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.
★
AER
AerCap Holdings N.V. · Rental & Leasing Services
FCF$3.6bB
Rev+6.5%C+
D/E2.33D
P/E7.6xA
PEG0.80A-
60.1Score
$154.87$24.3B
1Y Target$179.30Analyst consensus · 10 analysts
5Y Target$226.36Compound horizon
10Y Target$290.30Long-dated conviction
FCF$3.6bTTMB
FCF $3.6b — solid, comfortably covers operations and capital return
Rev+6.5%TTM YoYC+
Revenue +6.5% — steady but below market-beating range
D/E2.33D
D/E 2.33 — most levered decile in Industrials (≈95th pctile)
P/E7.6xA
P/E 7.6 — cheapest decile in Industrials (≈10th pctile)
PEG0.80A-
PEG 0.80 — strong; Lynch's preferred zone
Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.
Quality-growth score · 60.1
Quality0.64
Growth0.46
Value0.73
Why this score
Buying back stock
Raising its dividend
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
1% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value50% belowest. fair value ~$312
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~-16% a year for the next decade — vs the ~-3% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability11% · C+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC0.3% · Creturn on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Rental & Leasing Services · market cap $24.3b. Trading near 52-week high of $156.33 — momentum setup, limited technical margin of safety. PEG 0.80 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 10 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $179.30 (implying +16% upside).
Moat
Net margin 44% is exceptional — pricing-power territory rare outside premium software, branded staples, and specialty pharma. ROE 20% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. FCF converts 96% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
D/E 2.33 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Trading within 1% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction.
Horizon
1-3 yr $179.30 (10-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $226.36 at ~8% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $290.30 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
AER vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
AER
Book avg
Diff
Quality
0.64
0.83
-0.18
Growth
0.46
0.91
-0.45
Value
0.73
0.75
in line
Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.8). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.
Score history · AER
Trend
-1.9 over 33 daily scores
From 62.0 (Jun 22) → 60.1 (now)
One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.
Position sizing · AER
$
%
%
Shares to buy
12
Position size
$1,858
3.7% of portfolio
Stop price
$116.15
25% below $154.87
$ at risk if stopped
$464.61
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.
AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER) is a Rental & Leasing Services company that scores 60.1 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A) and PEG (A-), while D/E (D) rate weaker. On valuation, AER sits about 50% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -16% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.
Is AER a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores AER 60.1 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by P/E (A) and PEG (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of AerCap Holdings N.V.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does AER score 60.1 on Bull Rankings?
The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). AER earns its highest marks on P/E (A) and PEG (A-), and is held back by D/E (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.
Is AER overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $154.87, AER sits about 50% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -16% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 7.6x× P/E (graded A). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in AER?
D/E 2.33 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Trading within 1% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction.
Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.