Bull Rankings model

GATX Corporation (GATX) stock analysis

Rental & Leasing Services. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
GATX
GATX Corporation · Rental & Leasing Services
65.1Score
$164.78Oct 9 close$5.8B
1Y Target$219.50Analyst consensus · 4 analysts
5Y Target$277.11Compound horizon
10Y Target$355.39Long-dated conviction
FCF$723mTTM · 03/26
C+
FCF $723m — respectable but not differentiating · Trailing twelve months to 03/26 (operating cash flow − capex).
Rev+9.8%FY YoY
B
Revenue +9.8% — at or above S&P median · Computed from the last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E3.48
D
D/E 3.48 — most levered decile in Industrials (≈95th pctile)
P/E16.3x
A-
P/E 16.3 — cheaper than most Industrials peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG0.64
A-
PEG 0.64 — strong; the growth comes cheap

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 65.1
Quality57.8
Growth74.3
Value64.2
Why this score
  • Raising its dividend
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
20% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value45% belowest. fair value ~$300
What the price assumes: free cash flow shrinking about 8% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~10% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Rental & Leasing Services · market cap $5.8b. 20% off the 52-week high of $205.56. PEG 0.64 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 4 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $219.50 (implying +33% upside).
Moat
Net margin 18% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 12% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere. FCF converts 200% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash.
Risk
D/E 3.48 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer.
Horizon
1-3 yr $219.50 (4-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $277.11 at ~11% CAGR — dividend compounding plus earnings growth. 10 yr $355.39 if the moat survives secular pressure.

GATX vs the Top Picks average

PillarGATXBook avgDiff
Quality5883-25
Growth7489-15
Value6476-12

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
+5.8 over 82 daily scores
From 59.3 (Jun 22) → 65.1 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

GATX at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD65.1/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY57.8GROWTH74.3VALUE64.2Reverse-DCF · Price implies roughly no growth from here.
PRICE vs OUR DCF FAIR VALUE$278$334FAIR-VALUE RANGE$165PRICEOur DCF fair value ~$300 · price $165 is 45% below it.
WHERE THIS SCORE SITS0255075100GATX 65.1Top 17% of 1,709 companies on the quality-growth score.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$165LOW $150HIGH $206Trading at the 26th percentile of its 52-week range ($150–$206).

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-0.1%
90-day change+0.8%
Forward EPS estimate$11.26

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect GATX to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
12
Position size
$1,977
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$123.59
25% below $164.78
$ at risk if stopped
$494.34
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

GATX Corporation (GATX): score, valuation & FAQ

GATX Corporation (GATX) is a Rental & Leasing Services company that scores 65.1 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A-) and PEG (A-), while D/E (D) rate weaker. On valuation, GATX sits about 45% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 8% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten.

Is GATX a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores GATX 65.1 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by P/E (A-) and PEG (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of GATX Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does GATX score 65.1 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on growth at 74.3 out of 100, with quality the weakest pillar at 57.8 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. GATX earns its highest marks on P/E (A-) and PEG (A-), and is held back by D/E (D). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so GATX is measured against Rental & Leasing Services peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is GATX overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $164.78, GATX sits about 45% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 8% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 16.3x P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in GATX?

D/E 3.48 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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