Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

FRPT analysis

Freshpet, Inc.Packaged Foods. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

FRPT
Freshpet, Inc. · Packaged Foods
FCF$61mC-
Rev+12.8%B+
D/E0.40B+
P/E19.2xB
PEG4.19D
32.6Score
$73.97$3.6B
1Y Target$84.25Analyst consensus · 16 analysts
5Y Target$123.35Compound horizon
10Y Target$182.98Long-dated conviction
FCF$61mTTM
C-
FCF $61m — barely positive; fragile cash position
Rev+12.8%TTM YoY
B+
Revenue +12.8% — above sector median, healthy trajectory
D/E0.40
B+
D/E 0.40 — below the Consumer Defensive debt median (≈40th pctile)
P/E19.2x
B
P/E 19.2 — near the Consumer Defensive median (≈60th pctile)
PEG4.19
D
PEG 4.19 — very expensive; pricing in best-case scenarios

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 32.6
Quality59.6
Growth55.6
Value10.5
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
14% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value277% aboveest. fair value ~$20
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~53% a year for the next decade — vs the ~25% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability27% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC5.4% · C+return on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Packaged Foods · market cap $3.6b. 14% off the 52-week high of $86.00. Revenue growing +13%, comfortably above the S&P median. 16 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $84.25 (implying +14% upside).
Moat
Net margin 17% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 16% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately.
Risk
Beta 1.64 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.
Horizon
1-3 yr $84.25 (16-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $123.35 at ~11% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $182.98 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

FRPT vs the Top Picks average

PillarFRPTBook avgDiff
Quality0.600.84-0.24
Growth0.560.84-0.28
Value0.100.78-0.68

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-5.9 over 47 daily scores
From 38.5 (Jun 22) → 32.6 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+8.8%
90-day change+3.0%
Forward EPS estimate$1.96

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect FRPT to earn is drifting higher (+3.0%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
27
Position size
$1,997
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$55.47
25% below $73.97
$ at risk if stopped
$499.26
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Freshpet, Inc. (FRPT): score, valuation & FAQ

Freshpet, Inc. (FRPT) is a Packaged Foods company that scores 32.6 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a weak reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (B+) and D/E (B+), while FCF (C-) and PEG (D) rate weaker. On valuation, FRPT sits about 277% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 53% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is FRPT a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores FRPT 32.6 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a weak reading. That is driven by Rev (B+) and D/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Freshpet, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does FRPT score 32.6 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). FRPT earns its highest marks on Rev (B+) and D/E (B+), and is held back by FCF (C-) and PEG (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is FRPT overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $73.97, FRPT sits about 277% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 53% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 19.2x P/E (graded B). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in FRPT?

Beta 1.64 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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