Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

EL analysis

The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.Household & Personal Products. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Luxury & Premium Brands
EL
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. · Household & Personal Products
FCF$1.3bC+
Rev+5.0%C+
D/E2.43C
P/S2.5xC+
PEG2.12C
37.6Score
$104.13$37.7B
1Y Target$105.85Analyst consensus · 26 analysts
5Y Target$185.13Compound horizon
10Y Target$330.86Long-dated conviction
FCF$1.3bTTM
C+
FCF $1.3b — respectable but not differentiating
Rev+5.0%TTM YoY
C+
Revenue +5.0% — steady but below market-beating range
D/E2.43
C
D/E 2.43 — more levered than most Consumer Defensive peers (≈90th pctile)
P/S2.5x
C+
P/S 2.5x — above the Consumer Defensive median (≈75th pctile)
PEG2.12
C
PEG 2.12 — expensive relative to growth rate

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 37.6
Quality51.6
Growth36.2
Value28.6
Why this score
  • Cut its dividend
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
14% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value68% aboveest. fair value ~$62
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~25% a year for the next decade — vs the ~18% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability57% · Agross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC11.5% · Breturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Household & Personal Products · market cap $37.7b. 14% off the 52-week high of $121.64. 26 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $105.85 (implying +2% upside).
Moat
Free cash flow runs well ahead of reported net income — non-cash charges (depreciation, intangible amortization) are holding down GAAP earnings while cash generation stays strong.
Risk
D/E 2.43 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Net margin 1.2% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first. ROE 5% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.
Horizon
1-3 yr $105.85 (26-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $185.13 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $330.86 — return distribution heavily skewed.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

EL vs the Top Picks average

PillarELBook avgDiff
Quality0.520.84-0.32
Growth0.360.87-0.51
Value0.290.76-0.47

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+5.8 over 46 daily scores
From 31.8 (Jun 22) → 37.6 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-0.0%
90-day change+0.0%
Forward EPS estimate$3.90

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect EL to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A fiscal-year roll fell inside this window: the forward horizon moved on to the next financial year, which shifts the earnings figure without any analyst changing their view. That step is excluded, so the number above covers the rest of the window rather than all of it.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
19
Position size
$1,978
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$78.10
25% below $104.13
$ at risk if stopped
$494.62
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL): score, valuation & FAQ

The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) is a Household & Personal Products company that scores 37.6 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a weak reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

On valuation, EL sits about 68% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 25% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is EL a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores EL 37.6 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a weak reading. A score is a quantitative screen of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does EL score 37.6 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). EL grades middle-of-pack across the strip. Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is EL overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $104.13, EL sits about 68% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 25% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in EL?

D/E 2.43 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Net margin 1.2% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first. ROE 5% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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