Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

PM analysis

Philip Morris International Inc.Tobacco. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

PM
Philip Morris International Inc. · Tobacco
FCF$12.7bA-
Rev+8.9%B
D/E
P/E26.2xC+
PEG2.52C
47.2Score
$190.48$296.9B
1Y Target$203.80Analyst consensus · 15 analysts
5Y Target$298.38Compound horizon
10Y Target$442.63Long-dated conviction
FCF$12.7bTTM
A-
FCF $12.7b — top-quartile, exceptional for any sector
Rev+8.9%TTM YoY
B
Revenue +8.9% — at or above S&P median
D/E
D/E data unavailable — neutral default
P/E26.2x
C+
P/E 26.2 — above the Consumer Defensive median (≈75th pctile)
PEG2.52
C
PEG 2.52 — expensive relative to growth rate

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 47.2
Quality76.8
Growth66.6
Value20.5
Why this score
  • Raising its dividend
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
8% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value38% aboveest. fair value ~$139
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~14% a year for the next decade — vs the ~9% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability42% · A-gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
The bull case hinges on the unstoppable expansion of IQOS, the heat‑not‑burn platform that is redefining nicotine consumption. With 8.9% YoY revenue growth, a robust $12.7B free‑cash‑flow run‑rate and a 25.6% profit margin, the franchise is cash‑rich enough to fund aggressive rollout of smoke‑free products worldwide. The thesis rests on compounding FCF growth from IQOS adoption, which our model expects to sustain at ~14% annually for a decade.
Moat
IQOS and the complementary VEEV and ZYN lines lock in consumers through a proprietary heat‑not‑burn technology and a closed‑loop device ecosystem that requires proprietary consumables, creating high switching costs and a captive revenue stream that rivals cannot replicate quickly.
Risk
The bear case centers on the looming regulatory clampdown on nicotine‑delivery devices, which could throttle IQOS growth and force margin compression; the current P/E of 26.2 is elevated for a mature tobacco franchise, and any slowdown below the 8.9% revenue growth rate would invalidate the 14% FCF growth assumption. A decisive regulatory ruling against heat‑not‑burn products would trigger a sharp sell‑off.
Horizon
1-3 yr $203.80 (15-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $298.38 at ~9% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $442.63 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

PM vs the Top Picks average

PillarPMBook avgDiff
Quality0.770.83-0.07
Growth0.670.87-0.20
Value0.210.76-0.56

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.6). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-2.5 over 49 daily scores
From 49.7 (Jun 22) → 47.2 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

PM at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD47.2/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY76.8GROWTH66.6VALUE20.5Reverse-DCF · Price implies ~14% growth a year from here.
PRICE vs OUR DCF FAIR VALUE$128$156FAIR-VALUE RANGE$190PRICEOur DCF fair value ~$139 · price $190 is 27% above it.
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock+17%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$190$142 LOWHIGH $208Trading at the 74th percentile of its 52-week range ($142–$208).

Every figure here comes from the same audited fundamentals behind the score. Charts drawn from data the score does not use say so on the card.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+0.1%
90-day change+0.3%
Forward EPS estimate$9.17

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect PM to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
10
Position size
$1,905
3.8% of portfolio
Stop price
$142.86
25% below $190.48
$ at risk if stopped
$476.20
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Philip Morris International Inc. (PM): score, valuation & FAQ

Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) is a Tobacco company that scores 47.2 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are FCF (A-). On valuation, PM sits about 38% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 14% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is PM a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores PM 47.2 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. That is driven by FCF (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Philip Morris International Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does PM score 47.2 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on quality at 76.8 out of 100, with value the weakest pillar at 20.5 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. PM earns its highest marks on FCF (A-). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so PM is measured against Tobacco peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is PM overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $190.48, PM sits about 38% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 14% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 26.2x P/E (graded C+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in PM?

The bear case centers on the looming regulatory clampdown on nicotine‑delivery devices, which could throttle IQOS growth and force margin compression; the current P/E of 26.2 is elevated for a mature tobacco franchise, and any slowdown below the 8.9% revenue growth rate would invalidate the 14% FCF growth assumption. A decisive regulatory ruling against heat‑not‑burn products would trigger a sharp sell‑off.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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