British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI) stock analysis
Tobacco. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.
★
BTI
British American Tobacco p.l.c. · Tobacco
50.3Score
$55.50Oct 9 close$119.4B
1Y Target$70.43Analyst consensus · 6 analysts
5Y Target$88.92Compound horizon
10Y Target$114.04Long-dated conviction
FCF$8.9bTTM · 06/26B+
FCF $8.9b — strong cash profile, above most peers · Trailing twelve months to 06/26 (operating cash flow − capex).
Rev-1.0%FY YoYD+
Revenue -1.0% — shrinking; needs a catalyst to reverse · Latest fiscal year vs the prior one, from SEC filings — a trailing-twelve-month comparison couldn't be assembled from this company's filings.
D/E0.72B
D/E 0.72 — near the Consumer Defensive debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/E14.2xA-
P/E 14.2 — cheaper than most Consumer Defensive peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG1.40B
PEG 1.40 — acceptable premium for growth
Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology
Quality-growth score · 50.3
Quality74.1
Growth28.2
Value71.0
Why this score
Raising its dividend
Foreign reporter (GBP)
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
18% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value1% belowest. fair value ~$56
What the price assumes: free cash flow growing about 1% next year, rising to 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~-0% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Quality signals
ROIC9.5% · Breturn on invested capital — leads the quality score
Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards
Why now
Tobacco · market cap $119.4b. 18% off the 52-week high of $67.30. 6 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $70.43 (implying +27% upside).
Moat
Net margin 30% is exceptional — pricing-power territory rare outside premium software, branded staples, and specialty pharma. ROE 16% is above 15% — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. FCF converts 106% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash.
Risk
Dividend payout 84% of earnings on a 6.0% yield — distribution coverage is thin; one earnings stumble could force a dividend cut.
Horizon
1-3 yr $70.43 (6-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $88.92 at ~10% CAGR — dividend compounding plus earnings growth. 10 yr $114.04 if the moat survives secular pressure.
BTI vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
BTI
Book avg
Diff
Quality
74
83
-9
Growth
28
89
-61
Value
71
76
-5
Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.
Score history · BTI
Trend
-6.3 over 82 daily scores
From 56.6 (Jun 22) → 50.3 (now)
One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.
BTI at a glance
Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.
Analyst estimate revisions
30-day change
+0.2%
90-day change
-0.3%
Forward EPS estimate
$5.24
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect BTI to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →
Position sizing · BTI
$
%
%
Shares to buy
36
Position size
$1,998
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$41.63
25% below $55.50
$ at risk if stopped
$499.50
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.
British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI): score, valuation & FAQ
British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI) is a Tobacco company that scores 50.3 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A-) and FCF (B+), while Rev (D+) rate weaker. On valuation, BTI sits close to our DCF fair-value estimate (within a few percent) — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 1% next year, rising to 4% a year by year ten.
Is BTI a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores BTI 50.3 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by P/E (A-) and FCF (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of British American Tobacco p.l.c.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does BTI score 50.3 on Bull Rankings?
The score leans on quality at 74.1 out of 100, with growth the weakest pillar at 28.2 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. BTI earns its highest marks on P/E (A-) and FCF (B+), and is held back by Rev (D+). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so BTI is measured against Tobacco peers, not against the market as a whole.
Is BTI overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $55.50, BTI sits close to our DCF fair-value estimate (within a few percent) — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 1% next year, rising to 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 14.2x P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in BTI?
Dividend payout 84% of earnings on a 6.0% yield — distribution coverage is thin; one earnings stumble could force a dividend cut.