Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

BTI analysis

British American Tobacco p.l.c.Tobacco. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

BTI
British American Tobacco p.l.c. · Tobacco
FCF
Rev-1.0%D+
D/E0.72B
P/E14.2xA-
PEG1.48B
51.5Score
$56.21$121.1B
1Y Target$70.20Analyst consensus · 6 analysts
5Y Target$88.63Compound horizon
10Y Target$113.66Long-dated conviction
FCF
FCF not applicable for this sector (bank / insurer / REIT) or data unavailable
Rev-1.0%TTM YoY
D+
Revenue -1.0% — shrinking; needs a catalyst to reverse
D/E0.72
B
D/E 0.72 — near the Consumer Defensive debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/E14.2x
A-
P/E 14.2 — cheaper than most Consumer Defensive peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG1.48
B
PEG 1.48 — acceptable premium for growth

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 51.5
Quality70.2
Growth41.7
Value54.4
Why this score
  • Raising its dividend
  • Foreign reporter (GBP)
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
16% off the 12-month high
Quality signals · context only
ROIC9.5% · Breturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Tobacco · market cap $121.1b. 16% off the 52-week high of $67.30. 6 sell-side analysts publish a mean 1-yr target of $70.20 (implying +25% upside).
Moat
Net margin 30% is exceptional — pricing-power territory rare outside premium software, branded staples, and specialty pharma. ROE 16% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. $121.1b market cap gives the company enough scale to absorb fixed costs that subscale competitors can't, without yet being so large that growth has to come from acquisition.
Risk
Dividend payout 85% of earnings on a 6.0% yield — distribution coverage is thin; one earnings stumble could force a dividend cut.
Horizon
1-3 yr $70.20 (6-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $88.63 at ~10% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $113.66 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

BTI vs the Top Picks average

PillarBTIBook avgDiff
Quality0.700.84-0.14
Growth0.420.84-0.42
Value0.540.78-0.24

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-5.1 over 47 daily scores
From 56.6 (Jun 22) → 51.5 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-0.2%
90-day change-1.9%
Forward EPS estimate$5.22

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect BTI to earn is drifting lower (-1.9%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
35
Position size
$1,967
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$42.16
25% below $56.21
$ at risk if stopped
$491.84
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI): score, valuation & FAQ

British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI) is a Tobacco company that scores 51.5 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A-), while Rev (D+) rate weaker.

Is BTI a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores BTI 51.5 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by P/E (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of British American Tobacco p.l.c.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does BTI score 51.5 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). BTI earns its highest marks on P/E (A-), and is held back by Rev (D+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is BTI overvalued or undervalued?

We don't compute a reliable discounted-cash-flow value for BTI — typically because it is not yet consistently profitable or free-cash-flow positive — so its valuation rests on growth and price-to-sales rather than on earnings-based intrinsic value. Judge it on the trajectory of the business, not a single multiple.

What are the main risks of investing in BTI?

Dividend payout 85% of earnings on a 6.0% yield — distribution coverage is thin; one earnings stumble could force a dividend cut.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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