Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

DRD analysis

DRDGOLD LtdMetals & Mining. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

DRD
DRDGOLD Ltd · Metals & Mining
FCF
Rev+28.8%A-
D/E0.00A
P/E10.5xA-
PEG
74.1Score
$30.70$41.7B
1Y Target$35.30Model estimate · no analyst coverage
5Y Target$51.69Compound horizon
10Y Target$76.68Long-dated conviction
FCFTTM
FCF not applicable for this sector (bank / insurer / REIT) or data unavailable
Rev+28.8%TTM YoY
A-
Revenue +28.8% — strong growth, well above S&P median (~7%)
D/E0.00
A
D/E 0.00 — essentially debt-free, pristine balance sheet
P/E10.5x
A-
P/E 10.5 — cheap relative to market and most sectors
PEG
PEG not meaningful — earnings growth negative or data unavailable

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 74.1
Quality89.8
Growth50.0
Value90.7
Why this score
  • Durable high returns
  • Cut its dividend
  • Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
100% off the 12-month high

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Metals & Mining · market cap $41.7b. Down 100% from 52-week high of $6500.00 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +29% — in hypergrowth territory.
Moat
Net margin 25% sits well above the S&P median (~11%) — suggests structural pricing advantage or cost discipline competitors can't quickly close. ROE 33% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. Mining moat is reserve quality + extraction cost per unit — top-quartile cost producers generate cash through the commodity cycle while marginal producers burn it.
Risk
Down 100% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Beta 2.04 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. Commodity exposure — earnings power tracks the price of the underlying commodity, not management execution. A 15-20% move in the commodity reprices the equity well before fundamentals catch up.
Horizon
1-3 yr $35.30 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $51.69 at ~11% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $76.68 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

DRD vs the Top Picks average

PillarDRDBook avgDiff
Quality0.900.84+0.06
Growth0.500.84-0.34
Value0.910.78+0.12

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+12.8 over 46 daily scores
From 61.3 (Jun 22) → 74.1 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+0.0%
90-day change+0.0%
Forward EPS estimate$0.68

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect DRD to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
65
Position size
$1,996
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$23.02
25% below $30.70
$ at risk if stopped
$498.88
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

DRDGOLD Ltd (DRD): score, valuation & FAQ

DRDGOLD Ltd (DRD) is a Metals & Mining company that scores 74.1 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A), Rev (A-) and P/E (A-).

Is DRD a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores DRD 74.1 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by D/E (A), Rev (A-) and P/E (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of DRDGOLD Ltd's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does DRD score 74.1 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). DRD earns its highest marks on D/E (A), Rev (A-) and P/E (A-). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is DRD overvalued or undervalued?

We don't compute a reliable discounted-cash-flow value for DRD — typically because it is not yet consistently profitable or free-cash-flow positive — so its valuation rests on growth and price-to-sales rather than on earnings-based intrinsic value. Judge it on the trajectory of the business, not a single multiple.

What are the main risks of investing in DRD?

Down 100% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Beta 2.04 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. Commodity exposure — earnings power tracks the price of the underlying commodity, not management execution. A 15-20% move in the commodity reprices the equity well before fundamentals catch up.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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