Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

DNOW analysis

DNOW Inc.Industrial Distribution. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

DNOW
DNOW Inc. · Industrial Distribution
FCF$136mC
Rev+69.8%A
D/E0.31A-
P/S0.7xA
PEG
56.8Score
$15.68$2.8B
1Y Target$18.75Analyst consensus · 4 analysts
5Y Target$32.79Compound horizon
10Y Target$58.61Long-dated conviction
FCF$136mTTM
C
FCF $136m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev+69.8%TTM YoY
A
Revenue +69.8% — hypergrowth, top decile
D/E0.31
A-
D/E 0.31 — less debt than most Industrials peers (≈25th pctile)
P/S0.7x
A
P/S 0.7x — cheapest decile in Industrials (≈10th pctile)
PEG
PEG not meaningful — earnings growth negative or data unavailable

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 56.8
Quality28.3
Growth92.5
Value70.2
Why this score
  • Diluting shareholders
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
9% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value21% belowest. fair value ~$20
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~9% a year for the next decade — vs the ~25% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability17% · C+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC-7.4% · Freturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Industrial Distribution · market cap $2.8b. 9% off the 52-week high of $17.26. Revenue growing +70% — in hypergrowth territory. 4 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $18.75 (implying +20% upside).
Moat
Turnaround / out-of-favor name — GAAP-unprofitable for now, so the durability case is forward-looking: it rests on a recovery (margin normalization, a cyclical upturn or restructuring) or an un-monetized asset (IP / network effects / first-mover position) rather than on current reported results.
Risk
Currently unprofitable (margin -2.7%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk. ROE -5% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.
Horizon
1-3 yr $18.75 (4-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $32.79 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $58.61 — return distribution heavily skewed.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

DNOW vs the Top Picks average

PillarDNOWBook avgDiff
Quality0.280.84-0.56
Growth0.920.84+0.09
Value0.700.78-0.08

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+11.9 over 47 daily scores
From 44.9 (Jun 22) → 56.8 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-2.8%
90-day change-12.9%
Forward EPS estimate$0.82

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect DNOW to earn is materially lower (-12.9%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
127
Position size
$1,991
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$11.76
25% below $15.68
$ at risk if stopped
$497.84
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

DNOW Inc. (DNOW): score, valuation & FAQ

DNOW Inc. (DNOW) is a Industrial Distribution company that scores 56.8 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A), P/S (A) and D/E (A-). On valuation, DNOW sits about 21% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly 9% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is DNOW a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores DNOW 56.8 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by Rev (A), P/S (A) and D/E (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of DNOW Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does DNOW score 56.8 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). DNOW earns its highest marks on Rev (A), P/S (A) and D/E (A-). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is DNOW overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $15.68, DNOW sits about 21% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly 9% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in DNOW?

Currently unprofitable (margin -2.7%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk. ROE -5% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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