Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

POOL analysis

Pool CorporationIndustrial Distribution. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

POOL
Pool Corporation · Industrial Distribution
FCF$313mC
Rev+1.8%C
D/E1.35C
P/E17.5xA-
PEG1.60C+
60.8Score
$187.98$6.8B
1Y Target$220.36Analyst consensus · 11 analysts
5Y Target$322.63Compound horizon
10Y Target$478.61Long-dated conviction
FCF$313mTTM
C
FCF $313m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev+1.8%TTM YoY
C
Revenue +1.8% — flat, mature phase or headwinds present
D/E1.35
C
D/E 1.35 — more levered than most Industrials peers (≈90th pctile)
P/E17.5x
A-
P/E 17.5 — cheaper than most Industrials peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG1.60
C+
PEG 1.60 — modest premium; above fair value

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 60.8
Quality77.6
Growth42.0
Value68.9
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
  • Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
44% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value40% aboveest. fair value ~$134
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~14% a year for the next decade — vs the ~7% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability40% · B+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC19.4% · A-return on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Industrial Distribution · market cap $6.8b. Down 44% from 52-week high of $336.15 — deep drawdown territory. 11 sell-side analysts publish a mean 1-yr target of $220.36 (implying +17% upside).
Moat
ROE 36% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which.
Risk
Down 44% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up.
Horizon
1-3 yr $220.36 (11-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $322.63 at ~11% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $478.61 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

POOL vs the Top Picks average

PillarPOOLBook avgDiff
Quality0.780.84-0.06
Growth0.420.84-0.42
Value0.690.78-0.09

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-0.7 over 47 daily scores
From 61.5 (Jun 22) → 60.8 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-1.5%
90-day change-1.8%
Forward EPS estimate$11.82

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect POOL to earn is drifting lower (-1.8%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
10
Position size
$1,880
3.8% of portfolio
Stop price
$140.98
25% below $187.98
$ at risk if stopped
$469.95
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Pool Corporation (POOL): score, valuation & FAQ

Pool Corporation (POOL) is a Industrial Distribution company that scores 60.8 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A-). On valuation, POOL sits about 40% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 14% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is POOL a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores POOL 60.8 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by P/E (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Pool Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does POOL score 60.8 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). POOL earns its highest marks on P/E (A-). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is POOL overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $187.98, POOL sits about 40% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 14% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 17.5x P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in POOL?

Down 44% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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