1Y Target$34.20Near-term target
5Y Target$47.90Compound horizon
10Y Target$70.41Long-dated conviction
FCF$77mTTM · 03/26C-FCF $77m — barely positive; fragile cash position · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+7.2%TTM YoYBRevenue +7.2% — at or above S&P median · TTM YoY from trailing-4-quarter revenue sum vs prior 4 quarters.
D/E0.33totalB+D/E 0.33 — healthy leverage, well below danger zone · Total D/E computed from balance sheet (short-term + long-term debt + lease obligations) ÷ stockholders equity. More accurate than native field, which often uses long-term debt only.
P/E15.2xB+P/E 15.2 — at or below S&P median, reasonable
PEG2.09proxyCPEG 2.09 — expensive relative to growth rate · PEG proxy: P/E ÷ revenue growth % (true PEG requires forward EPS estimates, not in Finnhub free tier).
Why now
Trading Companies & Distributors · market cap $1.1b. Down 23% from 52-week high of $38.79 — deep drawdown territory.
Moat
ROE 24% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately.
Risk
Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.
Horizon
1-3 yr $34.20 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $47.90 at ~10% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $70.41 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
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