Bull Rankings model

Core & Main, Inc. (CNM) stock analysis

Industrial Distribution. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
CNM
Core & Main, Inc. · Industrial Distribution
60.0Score
$40.35Oct 9 close$7.4B
1Y Target$54.54Analyst consensus · 13 analysts
5Y Target$79.85Compound horizon
10Y Target$118.45Long-dated conviction
FCF$628mTTM · 07/26
C+
FCF $628m — respectable but not differentiating · Trailing twelve months to 07/26 (operating cash flow − capex).
Rev+2.8%FY YoY
C
Revenue +2.8% — flat, mature phase or headwinds present · Computed from the last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E1.31
C
D/E 1.31 — more levered than most Industrials peers (≈90th pctile)
P/E16.6x
A-
P/E 16.6 — cheaper than most Industrials peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG1.43
B
PEG 1.43 — acceptable premium for growth

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 60
Quality67.7
Growth59.4
Value53.6
Why this score
  • Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
32% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value36% belowest. fair value ~$63
What the price assumes: free cash flow shrinking about 3% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~11% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Industrial Distribution · market cap $7.4b. Down 32% from 52-week high of $59.66 — deep drawdown territory. 13 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $54.54 (implying +35% upside).
Moat
ROE 24% is above 15% — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. FCF converts 137% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash.
Risk
Down 32% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up.
Horizon
1-3 yr $54.54 (13-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $79.85 at ~15% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $118.45 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.

CNM vs the Top Picks average

PillarCNMBook avgDiff
Quality6883-15
Growth5989-30
Value5476-22

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
-8.5 over 82 daily scores
From 68.5 (Jun 22) → 60.0 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

CNM at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD60.0/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY67.7GROWTH59.4VALUE53.6Reverse-DCF · Price implies roughly no growth from here.
PRICE vs OUR DCF FAIR VALUE$57.8$72FAIR-VALUE RANGE$40.4PRICEOur DCF fair value ~$63.2 · price $40.4 is 36% below it.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$40.4LOW $39.4HIGH $59.7Trading near its 52-week low ($39.4–$59.7).
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock-18%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+6.1%
90-day change+13.7%
Forward EPS estimate$3.50

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect CNM to earn is materially higher (+13.7%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
49
Position size
$1,977
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$30.26
25% below $40.35
$ at risk if stopped
$494.29
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

Core & Main, Inc. (CNM): score, valuation & FAQ

Core & Main, Inc. (CNM) is an Industrial Distribution company that scores 60 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A-). On valuation, CNM sits about 36% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 3% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten.

Is CNM a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores CNM 60 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by P/E (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Core & Main, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does CNM score 60 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on quality at 67.7 out of 100, with value the weakest pillar at 53.6 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. CNM earns its highest marks on P/E (A-). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so CNM is measured against Industrial Distribution peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is CNM overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $40.35, CNM sits about 36% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 3% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 16.6x P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in CNM?

Down 32% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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