Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

FERG analysis

Ferguson Enterprises Inc.Industrial Distribution. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

FERG
Ferguson Enterprises Inc. · Industrial Distribution
FCF$1.6bC+
Rev+3.8%C+
D/E1.11C+
P/E23.9xB+
PEG1.49B
58.7Score
$242.24$46.9B
1Y Target$287.85Analyst consensus · 20 analysts
5Y Target$421.44Compound horizon
10Y Target$625.18Long-dated conviction
FCF$1.6bTTM
C+
FCF $1.6b — respectable but not differentiating
Rev+3.8%TTM YoY
C+
Revenue +3.8% — steady but below market-beating range
D/E1.11
C+
D/E 1.11 — above the Industrials debt median (≈75th pctile)
P/E23.9x
B+
P/E 23.9 — below the Industrials median (≈40th pctile)
PEG1.49
B
PEG 1.49 — acceptable premium for growth

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 58.7
Quality74.1
Growth59.7
Value45.7
Why this score
  • Raising its dividend
  • Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
11% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value81% aboveest. fair value ~$134
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~23% a year for the next decade — vs the ~11% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability49% · A-gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC18.5% · A-return on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Industrial Distribution · market cap $46.9b. 11% off the 52-week high of $271.64. 20 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $287.85 (implying +19% upside).
Moat
ROE 30% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which.
Risk
Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.
Horizon
1-3 yr $287.85 (20-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $421.44 at ~12% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $625.18 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

FERG vs the Top Picks average

PillarFERGBook avgDiff
Quality0.740.84-0.10
Growth0.600.84-0.24
Value0.460.78-0.33

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-4.4 over 47 daily scores
From 63.1 (Jun 22) → 58.7 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+0.0%
90-day change+0.3%
Forward EPS estimate$12.57

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect FERG to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
8
Position size
$1,938
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$181.68
25% below $242.24
$ at risk if stopped
$484.48
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Ferguson Enterprises Inc. (FERG): score, valuation & FAQ

Ferguson Enterprises Inc. (FERG) is a Industrial Distribution company that scores 58.7 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/E (B+). On valuation, FERG sits about 81% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 23% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is FERG a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores FERG 58.7 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by P/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Ferguson Enterprises Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does FERG score 58.7 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). FERG earns its highest marks on P/E (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is FERG overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $242.24, FERG sits about 81% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 23% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 23.9x P/E (graded B+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in FERG?

Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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