1Y Target$256.81Near-term target
5Y Target$359.64Compound horizon
10Y Target$528.66Long-dated conviction
FCF$2.1bTTM · 03/26BFCF $2.1b — solid, comfortably covers operations and capital return · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+6.2%TTM YoYC+Revenue +6.2% — steady but below market-beating range · TTM YoY from trailing-4-quarter revenue sum vs prior 4 quarters.
D/E0.71totalBD/E 0.71 — at market average, manageable · Total D/E computed from balance sheet (short-term + long-term debt + lease obligations) ÷ stockholders equity. More accurate than native field, which often uses long-term debt only.
P/E17.5xB+P/E 17.5 — at or below S&P median, reasonable
PEG2.82proxyCPEG 2.82 — expensive relative to growth rate · PEG proxy: P/E ÷ revenue growth % (true PEG requires forward EPS estimates, not in Finnhub free tier).
Why now
Trading Companies & Distributors · market cap $43.3b. 18% off the 52-week high of $271.64.
Moat
ROE 42% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which.
Risk
Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.
Horizon
1-3 yr $256.81 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $359.64 at ~10% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $528.66 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
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