Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

DE analysis

Deere & CompanyFarm & Heavy Construction Machinery. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Agriculture & Food
DE
Deere & Company · Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
FCF$3.8bB
Rev+4.0%C+
D/E3.76D
P/E36.0xC+
PEG1.49B
45.8Score
$648.64$175.1B
1Y Target$661.94Analyst consensus · 22 analysts
5Y Target$969.14Compound horizon
10Y Target$1,438Long-dated conviction
FCF$3.8bTTM
B
FCF $3.8b — solid, comfortably covers operations and capital return
Rev+4.0%TTM YoY
C+
Revenue +4.0% — steady but below market-beating range
D/E3.76
D
D/E 3.76 — most levered decile in Industrials (≈95th pctile)
P/E36.0x
C+
P/E 36.0 — above the Industrials median (≈75th pctile)
PEG1.49
B
PEG 1.49 — acceptable premium for growth

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 45.8
Quality59.6
Growth50.0
Value32.2
Why this score
  • Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
4% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value86% aboveest. fair value ~$349
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~30% a year for the next decade — vs the ~24% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability21% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC9.5% · Breturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · market cap $175.1b. 4% off the 52-week high of $674.19. 22 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $661.94 (implying +2% upside).
Moat
ROE 17% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. $175.1b market cap gives the company enough scale to absorb fixed costs that subscale competitors can't, without yet being so large that growth has to come from acquisition.
Risk
D/E 3.76 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Trailing P/E 36x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates.
Horizon
1-3 yr $661.94 (22-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $969.14 at ~8% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $1,438 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

DE vs the Top Picks average

PillarDEBook avgDiff
Quality0.600.84-0.24
Growth0.500.87-0.37
Value0.320.76-0.43

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+0.4 over 48 daily scores
From 45.4 (Jun 22) → 45.8 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-1.2%
90-day change-1.8%
Forward EPS estimate$22.46

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect DE to earn is drifting lower (-1.8%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
3
Position size
$1,946
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$486.48
25% below $648.64
$ at risk if stopped
$486.48
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Deere & Company (DE): score, valuation & FAQ

Deere & Company (DE) is a Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery company that scores 45.8 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

The model flags D/E (D) as weaker areas. On valuation, DE sits about 86% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 30% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is DE a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores DE 45.8 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. A score is a quantitative screen of Deere & Company's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does DE score 45.8 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). DE grades middle-of-pack across the strip, and is held back by D/E (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is DE overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $648.64, DE sits about 86% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 30% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 36.0x P/E (graded C+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in DE?

D/E 3.76 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Trailing P/E 36x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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