Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

BLBD analysis

Blue Bird CorporationFarm & Heavy Construction Machinery. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

BLBD
Blue Bird Corporation · Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
FCF$153mC
Rev+13.5%B+
D/E0.18A-
P/E7.7xA
PEG0.78A-
73.6Score
$65.33$2.1B
1Y Target$89.25Analyst consensus · 8 analysts
5Y Target$112.68Compound horizon
10Y Target$144.50Long-dated conviction
FCF$153mTTM
C
FCF $153m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev+13.5%TTM YoY
B+
Revenue +13.5% — above sector median, healthy trajectory
D/E0.18
A-
D/E 0.18 — less debt than most Industrials peers (≈25th pctile)
P/E7.7x
A
P/E 7.7 — cheapest decile in Industrials (≈10th pctile)
PEG0.78proxy
A-
PEG 0.78 — strong; Lynch's preferred zone · PEG proxy: P/E ÷ revenue growth % (true PEG requires forward EPS estimates, not in Finnhub free tier).

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 73.6
Quality0.86
Growth0.50
Value0.93
Why this score
  • Durable high returns
  • Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
22% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value19% aboveest. fair value ~$55
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~8% a year for the next decade — vs the ~3% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability28% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC20.2% · Areturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · market cap $2.1b. Down 22% from 52-week high of $83.39 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +13%, comfortably above the S&P median. PEG 0.78 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 8 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $89.25 (implying +37% upside).
Moat
Net margin 17% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 43% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which.
Risk
Value re-rating depends on a catalyst. Without one — analyst day, divestiture, margin recovery, capital return — the stock can stay cheap on these multiples for years.
Horizon
1-3 yr $89.25 (8-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $112.68 at ~12% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $144.50 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

BLBD vs the Top Picks average

PillarBLBDBook avgDiff
Quality0.860.83+0.03
Growth0.500.91-0.41
Value0.930.76+0.17

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 82.8). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+4.9 over 38 daily scores
From 68.7 (Jun 22) → 73.6 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
30
Position size
$1,960
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$49.00
25% below $65.33
$ at risk if stopped
$489.97
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD): score, valuation & FAQ

Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) is a Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery company that scores 73.6 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A), D/E (A-) and PEG (A-). On valuation, BLBD sits about 19% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 8% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is BLBD a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores BLBD 73.6 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by P/E (A), D/E (A-) and PEG (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Blue Bird Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does BLBD score 73.6 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). BLBD earns its highest marks on P/E (A), D/E (A-) and PEG (A-). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is BLBD overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $65.33, BLBD sits about 19% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 8% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 7.7x× P/E (graded A). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in BLBD?

Value re-rating depends on a catalyst. Without one — analyst day, divestiture, margin recovery, capital return — the stock can stay cheap on these multiples for years.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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