Bull Rankings model

CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) stock analysis

Security & Protection Services. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
CXW
CoreCivic, Inc. · Security & Protection Services
54.1Score
$32.93Oct 9 close$3.3B
1Y Target$41.80Analyst consensus · 5 analysts
5Y Target$61.20Compound horizon
10Y Target$90.79Long-dated conviction
FCF$57mTTM · 06/26
C-
FCF $57m — barely positive; fragile cash position · Trailing twelve months to 06/26 (operating cash flow − capex).
Rev+12.7%FY YoY
B+
Revenue +12.7% — above sector median, healthy trajectory · Computed from the last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E0.95
C+
D/E 0.95 — above the Industrials debt median (≈75th pctile)
P/E26.3x
B
P/E 26.3 — near the Industrials median (≈60th pctile)
PEG1.06
B+
PEG 1.06 — near fair value (1.0 is the usual benchmark)

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 54.1
Quality53.6
Growth75.8
Value38.8
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
10% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value107% aboveest. fair value ~$16
What the price assumes: free cash flow growing about 26% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~13% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Security & Protection Services · market cap $3.3b. 10% off the 52-week high of $36.55. Revenue growing +13%, comfortably above the S&P median. 5 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $41.80 (implying +27% upside).
Moat
Moat signals from the quantitative card are modest — profitability and capital efficiency are middle-of-pack. The thesis here depends on softer factors (switching costs, brand, distribution, regulatory protection) not captured by the quality-growth screen.
Risk
Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.
Horizon
1-3 yr $41.80 (5-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $61.20 at ~13% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $90.79 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.

CXW vs the Top Picks average

PillarCXWBook avgDiff
Quality5483-29
Growth7689-13
Value3976-37

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
+2.4 over 80 daily scores
From 51.7 (Jun 22) → 54.1 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

CXW at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD54.1/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY53.6GROWTH75.8VALUE38.8Reverse-DCF · Price implies ~26% growth a year from here.
PRICE vs OUR DCF FAIR VALUE$14.1$19FAIR-VALUE RANGE$32.9PRICEOur DCF fair value ~$15.9 · price $32.9 is 107% above it.
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock+82%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$32.9LOW $15.7HIGH $36.6Trading at the 83rd percentile of its 52-week range ($15.7–$36.6).

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+6.2%
90-day change+13.2%
Forward EPS estimate$2.42

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect CXW to earn is materially higher (+13.2%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
60
Position size
$1,976
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$24.70
25% below $32.93
$ at risk if stopped
$493.95
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW): score, valuation & FAQ

CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) is a Security & Protection Services company that scores 54.1 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (B+) and PEG (B+), while FCF (C-) rate weaker. On valuation, CXW sits about 107% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 26% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten.

Is CXW a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores CXW 54.1 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by Rev (B+) and PEG (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of CoreCivic, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does CXW score 54.1 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on growth at 75.8 out of 100, with value the weakest pillar at 38.8 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. CXW earns its highest marks on Rev (B+) and PEG (B+), and is held back by FCF (C-). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so CXW is measured against Security & Protection Services peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is CXW overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $32.93, CXW sits about 107% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 26% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 26.3x P/E (graded B). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in CXW?

Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

More Security Services stocks by score

All Industrials rankings →

Analyze another ticker →