Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

ADT analysis

ADT Inc.Security & Protection Services. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

ADT
ADT Inc. · Security & Protection Services
FCF$2.0bC+
Rev+2.1%C
D/E2.24D
P/E10.3xA
PEG1.50B
59.3Score
$7.38$5.4B
1Y Target$8.23Analyst consensus · 5 analysts
5Y Target$10.39Compound horizon
10Y Target$13.33Long-dated conviction
FCF$2.0bTTM
C+
FCF $2.0b — respectable but not differentiating
Rev+2.1%TTM YoY
C
Revenue +2.1% — flat, mature phase or headwinds present
D/E2.24
D
D/E 2.24 — most levered decile in Industrials (≈95th pctile)
P/E10.3x
A
P/E 10.3 — cheapest decile in Industrials (≈10th pctile)
PEG1.50est.
B
PEG 1.50 — acceptable premium for growth · PEG derived: P/E ÷ forward 1-year analyst EPS growth, because this name has no vendor-supplied PEG. Same earnings-growth basis as the reported figure on other rows.

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 59.3
Quality68.7
Growth51.8
Value58.5
Why this score
  • Diluting shareholders
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
17% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value82% belowest. fair value ~$42
What the price assumes: outright free-cash-flow decline for the next decade — vs the ~7% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
ROIC9.1% · Breturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Security & Protection Services · market cap $5.4b. 17% off the 52-week high of $8.94. 5 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $8.23 (implying +12% upside).
Moat
ROE 18% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. Free cash flow runs well ahead of reported net income — non-cash charges (depreciation, intangible amortization) are holding down GAAP earnings while cash generation stays strong.
Risk
D/E 2.24 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer.
Horizon
1-3 yr $8.23 (5-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $10.39 at ~7% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $13.33 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

ADT vs the Top Picks average

PillarADTBook avgDiff
Quality0.690.84-0.15
Growth0.520.84-0.32
Value0.580.78-0.20

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-13.3 over 46 daily scores
From 72.6 (Jun 22) → 59.3 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+1.7%
90-day change+1.7%
Forward EPS estimate$0.99

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect ADT to earn is drifting higher (+1.7%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
271
Position size
$2,000
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$5.54
25% below $7.38
$ at risk if stopped
$500.00
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

ADT Inc. (ADT): score, valuation & FAQ

ADT Inc. (ADT) is a Security & Protection Services company that scores 59.3 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A), while D/E (D) rate weaker. On valuation, ADT sits about 82% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies outright free-cash-flow decline over the next decade.

Is ADT a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores ADT 59.3 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by P/E (A). A score is a quantitative screen of ADT Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does ADT score 59.3 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). ADT earns its highest marks on P/E (A), and is held back by D/E (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is ADT overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $7.38, ADT sits about 82% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies outright free-cash-flow decline over the next decade. It trades at a 10.3x P/E (graded A). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in ADT?

D/E 2.24 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

More Security Services stocks by score

All Industrials rankings →

Analyze another ticker →