Security & Protection Services. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.
★
ADT
ADT Inc. · Security & Protection Services
57.0Score
$6.43Oct 9 close$4.7B
1Y Target$8.23Analyst consensus · 5 analysts
5Y Target$10.39Compound horizon
10Y Target$13.33Long-dated conviction
FCF$2.0bTTM · 06/26C+
FCF $2.0b — respectable but not differentiating · TTM from SEC filings (OCF − CapEx), four quarters to 06/26.
Rev+2.1%TTM YoYC
Revenue +2.1% — flat, mature phase or headwinds present · Latest four quarters of revenue vs the four before them, from SEC filings.
D/E2.24D
D/E 2.24 — most levered decile in Industrials (≈95th pctile)
P/E8.8xA
P/E 8.8 — cheapest decile in Industrials (≈10th pctile)
PEG1.29est.B
PEG 1.29 — acceptable premium for growth · PEG derived: P/E ÷ analysts' expected EPS growth for next year, because this name has no vendor-supplied PEG. When earnings are expected to dip this year, the growth used is the yearly average over this year and next, so a recovery isn't counted as growth.
Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology
Quality-growth score · 57
Quality68.9
Growth38.2
Value70.4
Why this score
Diluting shareholders
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
28% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value83% belowest. fair value ~$37
What the price assumes: free cash flow shrinking 25% or more next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~2% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Quality signals
ROIC9.1% · Breturn on invested capital — leads the quality score
Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards
Why now
Security & Protection Services · market cap $4.7b. Down 28% from 52-week high of $8.89 — deep drawdown territory. 5 sell-side analysts publish a mean 1-yr target of $8.23 (implying +28% upside).
Moat
ROE 18% is above 15% — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. Free cash flow runs well ahead of reported net income.
Risk
D/E 2.24 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer.
Horizon
1-3 yr $8.23 (5-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $10.39 at ~10% CAGR — the dividend has to outrun share dilution. 10 yr $13.33 if the moat survives secular pressure.
ADT vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
ADT
Book avg
Diff
Quality
69
83
-14
Growth
38
89
-51
Value
70
76
-6
Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.
Score history · ADT
Trend
-15.6 over 81 daily scores
From 72.6 (Jun 22) → 57.0 (now)
One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.
ADT at a glance
Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.
Analyst estimate revisions
30-day change
+0.0%
90-day change
+1.7%
Forward EPS estimate
$0.99
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect ADT to earn is drifting higher (+1.7%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →
Position sizing · ADT
$
%
%
Shares to buy
311
Position size
$2,000
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$4.82
25% below $6.43
$ at risk if stopped
$499.93
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.
ADT Inc. (ADT): score, valuation & FAQ
ADT Inc. (ADT) is a Security & Protection Services company that scores 57 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A), while D/E (D) rate weaker. On valuation, ADT sits about 83% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking 25% or more next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten.
Is ADT a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores ADT 57 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by P/E (A). A score is a quantitative screen of ADT Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does ADT score 57 on Bull Rankings?
The score leans on value at 70.4 out of 100, with growth the weakest pillar at 38.2 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. ADT earns its highest marks on P/E (A), and is held back by D/E (D). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so ADT is measured against Security & Protection Services peers, not against the market as a whole.
Is ADT overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $6.43, ADT sits about 83% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking 25% or more next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten. It trades at an 8.8x P/E (graded A). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in ADT?
D/E 2.24 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer.